Saucedo Omar, Martcheva M
Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States.
Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States.
Math Biosci. 2017 Jun;288:52-70. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2017.02.012. Epub 2017 Feb 23.
Over the last decade, the epidemiology of avian influenza has undergone a significant transformation. Not only have we seen an increase in the number of outbreaks of the deadly strain known as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), but the number of birds infected, and the cost of control has risen drastically. Live poultry markets play a huge role in the bird to bird transmission of avian influenza. We develop a two patch model to determine the competition between low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) and HPAI strains when migration is present. We define the two patches as live poultry markets in which the patches are connected through migration. We use a system of differential equations to analyze the existence-stability of the LPAI and HPAI equilibria and established results for the critical threshold R. We observed that in general migration in both directions increases the abundance of poultry infected with the HPAI strain. Migration promotes the coexistence in Patch 2 while in Patch 1 the region of coexistence fluctuates when migration is active between both patches.
在过去十年中，禽流感的流行病学发生了重大转变。我们不仅看到被称为高致病性禽流感（HPAI）的致命毒株的疫情爆发次数有所增加，而且感染禽类的数量以及防控成本也大幅上升。活禽市场在禽流感的禽间传播中起着巨大作用。我们建立了一个双斑块模型，以确定在存在迁移的情况下低致病性禽流感（LPAI）和HPAI毒株之间的竞争关系。我们将这两个斑块定义为通过迁移相互连接的活禽市场。我们使用微分方程组来分析LPAI和HPAI平衡点的存在稳定性，并确定关键阈值R的相关结果。我们观察到，一般来说，双向迁移会增加感染HPAI毒株的禽类数量。迁移促进了斑块2中的共存，而在斑块1中，当两个斑块之间存在活跃迁移时，共存区域会发生波动。
