早产儿视网膜病变的危险因素及预测模型
Risk Factors and Prediction Models for Retinopathy of Prematurity.
作者信息
Senthil Mallika Prem, Salowi Mohamad Aziz, Bujang Mohamad Adam, Kueh Adeline, Siew Chong Min, Sumugam Kala, Gaik Chan Lee, Kah Tan Aik
机构信息
Department of Ophthalmology, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS), Lot 77, Seksyen 22, Kuching Town Land District, Jalan Tun Ahmad Zaidi Adruce, 93150 Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia.
Department of Ophthalmology, Sarawak General Hospital, 93150 Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia.
出版信息
Malays J Med Sci. 2015 Sep;22(5):57-63.
OBJECTIVES
To develop a simple prediction model for the pre-screening of Retinopathy of Prematurity (ROP) among preterm babies.
METHODS
This was a prospective study. The test dataset (January 2007 until December 2010) was used to construct risk prediction models, and the validation dataset (January 2011 until March 2012) was used to validate the models developed from the test dataset. Two prediction models were produced using the test dataset based on logistic regression equations in which the development of ROP was used as the outcome.
RESULTS
The sensitivity and specificity for model 1 [gestational age (GA), birth weight (BW), intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH) and respiratory distress syndrome (RDS)] was 82 % and 81.7%, respectively; for model 2, (GA and BW) the sensitivity and specificity were 80.5% and 80.3%, respectively.
CONCLUSION
Model 2 was preferable, as it only required two predictors (GA and BW). Our prediction model can be used for early detection of ROP to avoid poor outcomes.
目的
开发一种用于早产儿视网膜病变（ROP）预筛查的简单预测模型。
方法
这是一项前瞻性研究。测试数据集（2007年1月至2010年12月）用于构建风险预测模型，验证数据集（2011年1月至2012年3月）用于验证从测试数据集中开发的模型。基于逻辑回归方程，以ROP的发生作为结果，使用测试数据集生成了两个预测模型。
结果
模型1[胎龄（GA）、出生体重（BW）、脑室内出血（IVH）和呼吸窘迫综合征（RDS）]的敏感性和特异性分别为82%和81.7%；模型2（GA和BW）的敏感性和特异性分别为80.5%和80.3%。
结论
模型2更可取，因为它只需要两个预测指标（GA和BW）。我们的预测模型可用于ROP的早期检测，以避免不良后果。
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