LAPC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
LVEC, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2017 Aug;61(8):1445-1460. doi: 10.1007/s00484-017-1322-4. Epub 2017 Feb 28.
Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.
气候变化持续影响我们养活不断增长人口的能力。气温升高有可能缩短作物生长周期，从而降低作物产量。在过去几十年中，中国成功地改良了作物品种，以稳定甚至延长作物生长周期，以利用日益增加的热量资源。然而，由于中国不同地区的种植制度复杂，调节作物生长周期以减少未来气候变化负面影响的可能性和有效性仍存在疑问。在这里，我们使用建模方法对中国双季稻、稻麦、麦玉、单季稻和单季玉米种植系统的主要粮食作物生产力进行了预测分析。结果表明，从现在到 2040 年代，变暖的气候将分别使当前水稻、小麦和玉米品种的生长周期缩短 2-24、11-13 和 9-29 天。作物生长周期缩短幅度最大的将是东北地区，那里单季稻和单季玉米种植占主导地位。作物生长周期的缩短将导致作物产量下降。双季稻轮作中晚稻、冬小麦-稻轮作中的小麦和单季玉米的产量降幅最大，分别为 27-31%、6-20%和 7-22%。然而，我们的预测分析还表明，通过改良作物品种稳定作物生长周期，可以补偿气候变暖的负面影响。在这种情况下，到 2040 年代，水稻、小麦和玉米的产量将分别增加 4-16%、31-38%和 11-12%。我们的模型结果表明，通过在中国采取适当的适应措施，保障未来粮食生产是有可能的。
