Cuervo José J, Møller Anders P
Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, Madrid, Spain.
Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Université Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Orsay, France.
PLoS One. 2017 Mar 2;12(3):e0173220. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173220. eCollection 2017.
Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size.
了解种群数量的时间变异性对于保护生物学至关重要,因为种群的大幅波动会增加灭绝风险。先前的研究表明,物种的某些生态、种群统计学、生活史和遗传特征可能与其种群波动程度有关。我们在231种欧洲繁殖鸟类的大样本中检验了情况是否如此,同时考虑了一些潜在的混杂因素,如种群趋势或由于共同祖先导致的物种间相似性。当逐一分析物种特异性特征时,种群波动幅度与集群性、栖息地、总繁殖范围、繁殖分布的异质性和出生扩散呈正相关,与城市化、丰度、亚种相对数量、寄生现象和多态位点比例呈负相关。然而,当在其他参数分析中纳入丰度(种群大小)时,只有集群性、栖息地、总繁殖范围和丰度仍与种群波动显著相关。同时包含所有这些预测因子的分析表明,种群大小在集群性、丰度较低且繁殖范围较大的物种中波动更大。其他参数似乎仅因其与丰度或集群性相关才与种群波动有关。种群波动与总繁殖范围之间意外的正相关关系似乎并非由丰度介导。种群波动与集群性之间的联系表明存在一种先前未被认识到的集群性成本。种群大小与种群波动之间的负相关关系可能至少由三种非相互排斥的随机过程来解释:种群统计学、环境和遗传随机性。种群指数中的测量误差未知,可能对种群大小与波动之间的负相关关系有贡献,但显然程度较小。种群大小与波动之间的关联表明,种群可能通过增加种群大小而趋于稳定。