Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48823, USA.
Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48823, USA.
Nat Plants. 2017 Mar 6;3:17013. doi: 10.1038/nplants.2017.13.
The Malawian Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP) has received praise as a proactive policy that has transformed the nation's food security, yet irreconcilable differences exist between maize production estimates distributed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Malawi Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MoAFS) and the National Statistical Office (NSO) of Malawi. These differences illuminate yield-reporting deficiencies and the value that alternative, politically unbiased yield estimates could play in understanding policy impacts. We use net photosynthesis (PsnNet) as an objective source of evidence to evaluate production history and production potential under a fertilizer input scenario. Even with the most generous harvest index (HI) and area manipulation to match a reported error, we are unable to replicate post-FISP production gains. In addition, we show that the spatial delivery of FISP may have contributed to popular perception of widespread maize improvement. These triangulated lines of evidence suggest that FISP may not have been the success it was thought to be. Lastly, we assert that fertilizer subsidies may not be sufficient or sustainable strategies for production gains in Malawi.
马拉维农业投入补贴计划（FISP）被誉为一项积极主动的政策，该政策改变了该国的粮食安全状况，但联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）、马拉维农业和粮食安全部（MoAFS）和马拉维国家统计局（NSO）分发的玉米产量估计之间存在不可调和的差异。这些差异揭示了产量报告的缺陷，以及替代、政治中立的产量估计在理解政策影响方面的价值。我们使用净光合作用（PsnNet）作为评估肥料投入情景下生产历史和生产潜力的客观证据来源。即使使用最慷慨的收获指数（HI）和面积调整来匹配报告的误差，我们也无法复制 FISP 后的产量增长。此外，我们表明，FISP 的空间分配可能促成了人们对广泛玉米改良的普遍看法。这些三角证据表明，FISP 可能不像人们认为的那样成功。最后，我们断言，肥料补贴可能不是马拉维增产的充分或可持续战略。
