Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom.
Sci Rep. 2016 Nov 8;6:36241. doi: 10.1038/srep36241.
Agriculture is the mainstay of Malawi's economy and maize is the most important crop for food security. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), adverse effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in Malawi are expected to be significant. We examined the impacts of CC on maize production and food security in Malawi's dominant cereal producing region, Lilongwe District. We used five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to make future (2011 to 2100) rainfall and temperature projections and simulated maize yields under these projections. Our future rainfall projections did not reveal a strong increasing or decreasing trend, but temperatures are expected to increase. Our crop modelling results, for the short-term future, suggest that maize farming might benefit from CC. However, faster crop growth could worsen Malawi's soil fertility problem. Increasing temperature could drive lower maize yields in the medium to long-term future. Consequently, up to 12% of the population in Lilongwe District might be vulnerable to food insecurity by the end of the century. Measures to increase soil fertility and moisture must be developed to build resilience into Malawi's agriculture sector.
农业是马拉维经济的支柱，玉米是保障粮食安全的最重要作物。马拉维作为最不发达国家，预计气候变化（CC）对农业的不利影响将非常显著。我们研究了 CC 对马拉维主要谷物产区利隆圭地区玉米生产和粮食安全的影响。我们使用五个全球环流模型（GCM）对未来（2011 年至 2100 年）的降雨和温度进行预测，并根据这些预测模拟玉米产量。我们未来的降雨预测并没有显示出强烈的增加或减少趋势，但预计气温会升高。我们的作物模型结果表明，短期内，玉米种植可能会受益于 CC。然而，作物生长加快可能会加剧马拉维的土壤肥力问题。在中长期，气温升高可能会导致玉米产量下降。因此，到本世纪末，利隆圭地区可能有 12%的人口容易面临粮食不安全问题。必须制定增加土壤肥力和水分的措施，以增强马拉维农业部门的抵御能力。
