Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK.
Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, UK.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Jul 1;589:89-96. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.142. Epub 2017 Mar 6.
Historic fisheries data collected from locations across the UK over several years were compared with predicted estrogen exposure derived from the resident human population. This estrogen exposure could be viewed as a proxy for general sewage (wastewater) exposure. With the assistance of the Environment Agency in the UK, fisheries abundance data for Rutilis rutilis (roach), Alburnus alburnus (bleak), Leuciscus leuciscus (dace) and Perca fluviatilis (perch) from 38 separate sites collected over 7 to 17year periods were retrieved. From these data the average density (fish/m/year) were compared against average and peak predicted estrogen (wastewater) exposure for these sites. Estrogen concentrations were predicted using the LF2000-WQX model. No correlation between estrogen/wastewater exposure and fish density could be found for any of the species. Year on year temporal changes in roach population abundance at 3 sites on the middle River Thames and 4 sites on the Great Ouse were compared against estrogen exposure over the preceding year. In this case the estrogen prediction was calculated based on the upstream human population providing the estrogen load and the daily flow value allowing concentration to be estimated over time. At none of the sites on these rivers were temporal declines in abundance associated with preceding estrogen (effluent) exposure. The results indicate that, over the past decade, wastewater and estrogen exposure has not led to a catastrophic decline in these four species of cyprinid fish.
从英国各地多年收集的历史渔业数据与从当地人口中得出的预测雌激素暴露进行了比较。这种雌激素暴露可以被视为一般污水（废水）暴露的代表。在英国环境署的协助下，从 38 个不同地点收集了 Rutilius rutilis（罗非鱼）、Alburnus alburnus（淡菜）、Leuciscus leuciscus（鲦鱼）和 Perca fluviatilis（鲈鱼）的渔业丰度数据，这些数据的采集时间跨度为 7 到 17 年。从这些数据中，比较了这些地点的平均密度（每立方米/年的鱼数）和平均及峰值预测的雌激素（废水）暴露。雌激素浓度是使用 LF2000-WQX 模型预测的。对于所有这些物种，都没有发现雌激素/废水暴露与鱼类密度之间的相关性。在泰晤士河中游的 3 个地点和大乌斯河的 4 个地点，对过去一年中罗非鱼种群数量的逐年变化与前一年的雌激素暴露进行了比较。在这种情况下，根据上游提供雌激素负荷的人口和允许随时间估算浓度的日流量值，计算了雌激素预测值。在这些河流的任何地点，都没有发现丰度的时间下降与之前的雌激素（废水）暴露有关。结果表明，在过去十年中，废水和雌激素暴露并没有导致这四种鲤鱼科鱼类的灾难性减少。
