Neumann Konrad, Grittner Ulrike, Piper Sophie K, Rex Andre, Florez-Vargas Oscar, Karystianis George, Schneider Alice, Wellwood Ian, Siegerink Bob, Ioannidis John P A, Kimmelman Jonathan, Dirnagl Ulrich
Department of Biostatistics and Clinical Epidemiology, Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Center for Stroke Research, Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
PLoS Biol. 2017 Mar 10;15(3):e2001307. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.2001307. eCollection 2017 Mar.
Despite the potential benefits of sequential designs, studies evaluating treatments or experimental manipulations in preclinical experimental biomedicine almost exclusively use classical block designs. Our aim with this article is to bring the existing methodology of group sequential designs to the attention of researchers in the preclinical field and to clearly illustrate its potential utility. Group sequential designs can offer higher efficiency than traditional methods and are increasingly used in clinical trials. Using simulation of data, we demonstrate that group sequential designs have the potential to improve the efficiency of experimental studies, even when sample sizes are very small, as is currently prevalent in preclinical experimental biomedicine. When simulating data with a large effect size of d = 1 and a sample size of n = 18 per group, sequential frequentist analysis consumes in the long run only around 80% of the planned number of experimental units. In larger trials (n = 36 per group), additional stopping rules for futility lead to the saving of resources of up to 30% compared to block designs. We argue that these savings should be invested to increase sample sizes and hence power, since the currently underpowered experiments in preclinical biomedicine are a major threat to the value and predictiveness in this research domain.
尽管序贯设计有潜在益处,但在临床前实验生物医学中评估治疗方法或实验操作的研究几乎都只使用经典的区组设计。本文的目的是让临床前领域的研究人员关注现有的组序贯设计方法,并清晰展示其潜在效用。组序贯设计比传统方法效率更高,且在临床试验中使用得越来越多。通过数据模拟,我们证明组序贯设计有提高实验研究效率的潜力,即使样本量非常小,就像目前临床前实验生物医学中普遍存在的情况一样。当模拟效应量d = 1且每组样本量n = 18的数据时,从长远来看,序贯频率分析消耗的实验单位计划数量仅约为80%。在更大规模的试验中(每组n = 36),与区组设计相比,额外的无效性停止规则可节省高达30%的资源。我们认为,这些节省下来的资源应投入到增加样本量从而提高检验效能上,因为目前临床前生物医学中检验效能不足的实验对该研究领域的价值和预测性构成了重大威胁。