Hydrologic Research Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
J. Amorocho Hydraulics Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Aug 15;592:12-24. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.086. Epub 2017 Mar 12.
The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region.
基于三种 GCM（CCSM4、HadGEM2-ES 和 MIROC5）在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 未来气候情景下的动态降尺度 CMIP5 未来气候预测，对北加州的八个研究流域进行了 21 世纪气候变化对流域尺度降水影响的研究。在评估了 WRF 模型的建模能力后，通过 WRF 模型以 9km 的网格分辨率和每小时的时间分辨率对北加州的未来气候进行了 94 年（2006-2100 年）的动态降尺度处理。对模型模拟的偏差进行了修正，并从动态降尺度的降水数据中计算了八个研究流域的流域平均降水。基于动态降尺度的流域平均降水，分析了未来气候条件下 21 世纪八个研究流域的流域平均降水年深度和年峰值的变化趋势。本研究表明，21 世纪流域尺度降水的年深度和年峰值的变化趋势可能存在差异。此外，即使在同一地区，不同流域的未来气候条件下的流域尺度降水变化趋势也可能因位置和地形而异。
