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在生态学中,模型和数据必须达到怎样的水平?

How good must models and data be in ecology?

作者信息

Belovsky Gary E

机构信息

Ecology Center and Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Utah State University, 84322-5210, Logan, UT, USA.

出版信息

Oecologia. 1994 Dec;100(4):475-480. doi: 10.1007/BF00317870.

DOI:10.1007/BF00317870
PMID:28306937
Abstract

Linear programming models of diet selection (LP) have been criticized as being too sensitive to variations in parameter values that have not been or may not be able to be measured with a high degree of precision (small standard error). Therefore, LP's predictions have been questioned, even though the predicted diet choices agree very well with observations in 400 published tests. The philosophical and statistical aspects of this criticism of LP are reviewed in light of the ability to test any nontrivial ecological theory. It is argued that measures of error in field data may not meet simple statistical definitions, and thereby, may make sensitivity analyses that use the error measures overly conservative. Furthermore, the important issue in testing ecological theory may not be the statistical confidence in a single test, but whether or not the theory withstands repeated tests.

摘要

饮食选择的线性规划模型(LP)一直受到批评,因为它对那些尚未或可能无法高精度测量(小标准误差)的参数值变化过于敏感。因此,尽管在400项已发表的测试中,LP预测的饮食选择与观察结果非常吻合,但其预测仍受到质疑。鉴于检验任何重要生态理论的能力,本文对这种对LP的批评所涉及的哲学和统计学方面进行了审视。有人认为,实地数据中的误差度量可能不符合简单的统计学定义,从而可能使使用这些误差度量的敏感性分析过于保守。此外,检验生态理论的重要问题可能不在于单次测试中的统计置信度,而在于该理论是否经得起反复检验。

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引用本文的文献

1
Circularity in linear programming models of optimal diet.最优饮食线性规划模型中的循环性。
Oecologia. 1996 Oct;108(2):259-261. doi: 10.1007/BF00334649.
2
Plant compensation to grazing and soil carbon dynamics in a tropical grassland.热带草原中放牧对植物补偿和土壤碳动态的影响。
PeerJ. 2014 Jan 28;2:e233. doi: 10.7717/peerj.233. eCollection 2014.
3
Troublesome toxins: time to re-think plant-herbivore interactions in vertebrate ecology.麻烦的毒素:是时候重新思考脊椎动物生态学中植物与食草动物的相互作用了。

本文引用的文献

1
Sociality of Columbian ground squirrels in relation to their seasonal energy intake.哥伦比亚地松鼠的社会性与其季节性能量摄入的关系
Oecologia. 1990 Jul;83(4):495-503. doi: 10.1007/BF00317200.
2
Optimal foraging and fitness in Columbian ground squirrels.哥伦比亚地松鼠的最佳觅食与适应性
Oecologia. 1990 Jan;82(1):56-67. doi: 10.1007/BF00318534.
3
Effects of spines and thorns on Australian arid zone herbivores of different body masses.刺对不同体重的澳大利亚干旱区食草动物的影响。
BMC Ecol. 2009 Feb 24;9:5. doi: 10.1186/1472-6785-9-5.
Oecologia. 1991 Dec;88(4):521-528. doi: 10.1007/BF00317715.
4
A causal analysis of diet composition in free ranging cattle in reed-dominated vegetation.芦苇为主的植被中自由放养牛的饮食组成的因果分析。
Oecologia. 1991 Oct;88(2):167-172. doi: 10.1007/BF00320807.
5
Nutrient constraints in the feeding ecology of an omnivore in a seasonal environment.季节性环境中杂食动物觅食生态的营养限制因素
Oecologia. 1985 May;66(2):280-290. doi: 10.1007/BF00379866.
6
Optimal foraging and community structure: implications for a guild of generalist grassland herbivores.最优觅食与群落结构:对一类广食性草原食草动物的影响
Oecologia. 1986 Aug;70(1):35-52. doi: 10.1007/BF00377109.
7
Foraging strategies and seasonal diet optimization of muskoxen in West Greenland.西格陵兰麝牛的觅食策略与季节性饮食优化
Oecologia. 1995 Oct;104(2):169-180. doi: 10.1007/BF00328582.
8
A linear programming model of herbivore foraging: imprecise, yet successful?食草动物觅食的线性规划模型:不精确但成功?
Oecologia. 1994 Dec;100(4):470-474. doi: 10.1007/BF00317869.
9
Mechanisms of foraging in mammalian herbivores: new models of functional response.哺乳动物食草动物的觅食机制:功能反应的新模型
Am Nat. 1992 Aug;140(2):325-48. doi: 10.1086/285415.
10
Diet optimization in a generalist herbivore: the moose.泛食性食草动物的饮食优化:驼鹿
Theor Popul Biol. 1978 Aug;14(1):105-34. doi: 10.1016/0040-5809(78)90007-2.