Fox John F
Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 82071, Laramie, WY, USA.
Oecologia. 1978 Jan;31(3):349-374. doi: 10.1007/BF00346252.
This paper shows that there is a reasonable coincidence between the Canada lynx cycle and the occurrence of forest and brush fires. Fires set in motion plant succession, potentially leading to an increase in snowshoe hares (Grange, 1965). Snowfall is also correlated with the lynx cycle and tends to account for the variation not accounted for by fires. I conclude that Grange's (1949, 1965) hypothesis that fire and plant succession drive the snowshoe hare cycle deserves serious consideration, as do Butler's (1962) and Watt's (1968, 1973) suggestions that precipitation may drive or decisively modify furbearer 'cycles'. On this evidence, the snowshoe hare-Canada lynx cycle seems likely to be a forced oscillation rather than a predator-prey, parasitehost, or herbivore-vegetation limit cycle, as proposed by several authors. Fire clearly appear to be a periodic phenomenon, not-withstanding the difficulty of showing periodicity in simple weather time series. Fire is itself a meteorological phenomenon, although complexly related to simple weather variables.
本文表明，加拿大猞猁种群数量的波动周期与森林火灾和灌木丛火灾的发生之间存在合理的巧合。火灾引发了植物演替，这有可能导致雪兔数量增加（格兰奇，1965年）。降雪量也与猞猁种群数量的波动周期相关，并且往往能够解释那些无法用火灾来解释的变化。我得出结论，格兰奇（1949年，1965年）提出的火灾和植物演替驱动雪兔种群数量波动周期的假说值得认真考虑，巴特勒（1962年）以及瓦特（1968年，1973年）提出的降水可能驱动或决定性地改变毛皮兽种群数量波动周期的观点也值得认真考虑。基于这些证据，雪兔-加拿大猞猁种群数量波动周期似乎更有可能是一种强迫振荡，而不是像几位作者所提出的那样，是捕食者-猎物、寄生虫-宿主或食草动物-植被的极限周期。尽管在简单的气象时间序列中难以显示周期性，但火灾显然是一种周期性现象。火灾本身就是一种气象现象，尽管它与简单的气象变量之间存在复杂的关系。
