Renzi Matteo, Stafoggia Massimo, Cernigliaro Achille, Calzolari Roberta, Madonia Giuseppe, Scondotto Salvatore, Forastiere Francesco
Dipartimento di epidemiologia, Sistema sanitario regionale del Lazio, Roma.
Dipartimento per le attività sanitarie e osservatorio epidemiologico, Assessorato regionale della sanità, Regione siciliana, Palermo.
Epidemiol Prev. 2017 Jan-Feb;41(1):46-53. doi: 10.19191/EP17.1.P046.011.
"OBJECTIVES: to investigate the increase of PM10 during Saharan dust outbreaks with adverse health effects in Sicily (Southern Italy), the largest Mediterranean Island.
pooled analyses of time series with Poisson regression models to estimate the association between PM10 from different sources (desert and non-desert) and different outcomes.
the four largest cities of Sicily (Palermo, Catania, Syracuse, and Messina) and three macroareas (North- East, South, and West) Sicily was divided into.
daily count of cause-specific (ICD-9 codes) mortality and hospital admissions: natural (0-799), cardiovascular (390-459), and respiratory causes (460-519).
962 days affected by Saharan dust (30% of all days: 2,257) were identified. Significant associations between desert PM10 and natural mortality both in the cities and in the macro-areas were found, with increases of risk and 95% confidence intervals equal to 1.1% (95%CI 0.1-2.1) and 1.1% (95%CI 0.8-1.5) per 10 μg/m3 increase in lag 0-1 PM10, respectively. Weaker estimates were found for cardiorespiratory mortality. Desert PM10 displayed an association with respiratory hospitalizations, especially in the three macroareas (0.5%; 95%CI 0.1-1.0). In contrast, cardiovascular hospitalizations were associated only with non-desert PM10 in the four cities (1.3%; 95%CI 0.4- 2.1%). Higher desert PM10-related mortality was found during the warmer months (period: April-September): 2.7% (95%CI 0.8-4.5) in the four cities and 2.5% (95%CI 1.8%-3.2%) in the three macroareas. CONCLUSIONS PM10 originating from desert was positively associated with mortality and hospitalizations in Sicily. Policies should aim to reduce anthropogenic emissions even in areas with large contribution from desert sources."
“目的：调查撒哈拉沙尘暴发期间，意大利南部最大的地中海岛屿西西里岛的PM10增加情况及其对健康的不利影响。
采用泊松回归模型对时间序列进行汇总分析，以估计不同来源（沙漠和非沙漠）的PM10与不同结果之间的关联。
西西里岛的四个最大城市（巴勒莫、卡塔尼亚、锡拉库萨和墨西拿）以及西西里岛划分的三个大区（东北、南部和西部）。
特定病因（国际疾病分类第九版编码）的每日死亡人数和住院人数：自然病因（0 - 799）、心血管病因（390 - 459）和呼吸道病因（460 - 519）。
确定了962天受到撒哈拉沙尘影响（占所有天数的30%：2257天）。在城市和大区中，均发现沙漠源PM10与自然死亡率之间存在显著关联，滞后0 - 1天的PM10每增加10μg/m³，风险增加分别为1.1%（95%置信区间0.1 - 2.1）和1.1%（95%置信区间0.8 - 1.5）。心肺死亡率的估计值较弱。沙漠源PM10与呼吸道住院存在关联，尤其是在三个大区（0.5%；95%置信区间0.1 - 1.0）。相比之下，心血管住院仅与四个城市的非沙漠源PM10相关（1.3%；95%置信区间0.4 - 2.1%）。在较温暖的月份（4月至9月期间）发现与沙漠源PM10相关的死亡率更高：四个城市为2.7%（95%置信区间0.8 - 4.5），三个大区为2.5%（95%置信区间1.8% - 3.2%）。结论：源自沙漠的PM10与西西里岛的死亡率和住院率呈正相关。即使在沙漠源贡献较大的地区，政策也应旨在减少人为排放。”
