Gao M T, Wang T, Wang K K, Li S Y, Yan H
School of Health Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2017 Mar 10;38(3):354-358. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.03.016.
To understand the spatial and temporal distribution of HIV/AIDS in Hubei province, and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of AIDS. GeoDa software was used for autocorrelation analysis, SatScan 9.2 software was used for statistical analysis of spatial scanning, and finally geographic information system was used for visualization. A total of 6 952 HIV/AIDS cases were reported during 2010-2013 in Hubei, and the spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that Global ' index was 0.266 (<0.05), indicating that there was a positive spatial autocorrelation of HIV/AIDS. Global ' index increased year by year (<0.05), indicating that the increased spatial aggregation of HIV/AIDS during 2010-2013. The local ' index showed that " high-high" clustering areas were in Wuhan, and the number of " high-high" clustering areas increased during 2010-2013. Moreover, the " high-high" clustering areas expanded from Wuhan to surrounding areas. Spatial and temporal scan analysis revealed that 19 counties in Wuhan, Huangshi, Ezhou, Xianning with a radius of 60.01 km (=625.14, =3.23) were the main spatial and temporal clustering area during 2012-2013. The spatial changes of HIV/AIDS seemed to be regular from 2010 to 2013 in Wuhan, spatial correlation at provincial level decreased and the " high-high" clustering areas gradually expanded from Wuhan to surrounding areas, indicating that it is necessary to strengthen the AIDS prevention and control in these areas in Hubei.
为了解湖北省艾滋病病毒/艾滋病（HIV/AIDS）的时空分布情况，为艾滋病防控提供科学依据。采用GeoDa软件进行自相关分析，SatScan 9.2软件进行空间扫描统计分析，最后利用地理信息系统进行可视化。2010 - 2013年湖北省共报告6952例HIV/AIDS病例，空间自相关分析显示全局Moran's I指数为0.266（<0.05），表明HIV/AIDS存在正空间自相关。全局Moran's I指数逐年上升（<0.05），表明2010 - 2013年HIV/AIDS的空间聚集性增强。局部Moran's I指数显示“高高”聚类区域位于武汉，且2010 - 2013年“高高”聚类区域数量增加。此外，“高高”聚类区域从武汉扩展到周边地区。时空扫描分析显示，2012 - 2013年武汉市、黄石市、鄂州市、咸宁市19个县，半径为60.01 km（=625.14，=3.23）为主要时空聚类区域。2010 - 2013年武汉市HIV/AIDS的空间变化似乎具有规律性，省级层面的空间相关性降低，“高高”聚类区域逐渐从武汉扩展到周边地区，表明湖北省这些地区有必要加强艾滋病防控工作。
