Zhu H S, Wang L L, Lin D H, Hong R T, Ou J M, Chen W, Wu B P, Huang W L, Xie Z H, Chen G M, Wu S G, Xu Z B, Deng Y Q
Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou 350001, China.
Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou 350001, China;Office, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou 350001, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2017 Sep 10;38(9):1212-1217. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.09.014.
To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of human brucellosis in Fujian province during 2011-2016, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease. The surveillance data of human brucellosis in Fujian during 2011-2016 was analyzed with software R 3.3.1, ArcGIS 10.3.1, GeoDa 1.8.8 and SaTScan 9.4.3. During 2011-2016, a total of 319 human brucellosis cases were reported, the incidence increased year by year (=11.838, =0.026) with the annual incidence of 0.14/100 000. The male to female rate ratio of the incidence was 2.50 ∶ 1. Farmers and herdsmen accounted for 57.37. The incidence was 0.40/100 000 in Zhangzhou and 0.32/100 000 in Nanping, which were higher than other areas. The number of affected counties (district) increased from 12 in 2011 to 28 in 2016, showing a significant increase (=13.447, =0.021). The Moran's of brucellosis in Fujian between January 2011 and December 2016 was 0.045, indicating the presence of a high value or low value clustering areas. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that, high-high clustering area (hot spots) were distributed in Zhangpu, Longhai, Longwen, , while high-low clustering areas were distributed in Nan'an and Jiaocheng, . Temporal scanning showed that there were three clustering areas in areas with high incidence, the most possible clustering, occurring during January 1, 2013- December 31,2015, covered 6 counties, including Yunxiao, Pinghe, Longhai, , and Zhangpu was the center, (=7.96, =92.62, <0.001). The epidemic of human brucellosis in Fujian is becoming serious, and has spread to general population and non-epidemic areas. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of human brucellosis in areas at high risk.
分析2011 - 2016年福建省人间布鲁氏菌病的流行病学特征和空间分布,为该病的预防控制提供依据。运用软件R 3.3.1、ArcGIS 10.3.1、GeoDa 1.8.8和SaTScan 9.4.3对福建省2011 - 2016年人间布鲁氏菌病监测数据进行分析。2011 - 2016年共报告人间布鲁氏菌病病例319例,发病率逐年上升(χ² = 11.838,P = 0.026),年发病率为0.14/10万。发病的男女比例为2.50∶1。农民和牧民占57.37%。漳州市发病率为0.40/10万,南平市为0.32/10万,高于其他地区。发病县(区)数量从2011年的12个增加到2016年的28个,呈显著增加(χ² = 13.447,P = 0.021)。2011年1月至2016年12月福建省布鲁氏菌病的Moran's I为0.045,表明存在高值或低值聚集区。局部空间自相关分析显示,高高聚集区(热点)分布在漳浦、龙海、龙文等地,而高低聚集区分布在南安和蕉城等地。时间扫描显示,高发病区有3个聚集区,最可能的聚集发生在2013年1月1日至2015年12月31日,覆盖云霄、平和、龙海等6个县,以漳浦为中心(LLR = 7.96,P = 92.62,P < 0.001)。福建省人间布鲁氏菌病疫情呈加重趋势,已波及普通人群和非疫区,需加强高风险地区人间布鲁氏菌病的防控。