成人囊性纤维化 3 年预后评分。
A 3-year prognostic score for adults with cystic fibrosis.
机构信息
Laboratoire Modélisation, Epidémiologie et Surveillance des Risques Sanitaires, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France.
Hôpital Saint-Louis, Service de Biostatistique et Information Médicale, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France.
出版信息
J Cyst Fibros. 2017 Nov;16(6):702-708. doi: 10.1016/j.jcf.2017.03.004. Epub 2017 Mar 18.
BACKGROUND
Therapeutic progress in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) has resulted in improved prognosis over the past decades. We aim to reevaluate prognostic factors of CF and provide a prognostic score to predict the risk of death or lung transplantation (LT) within a 3-year period in adult patients.
METHODS
We developed a logistic model using data from the French CF Registry and combined the coefficients into a prognostic score. The discriminative abilities of the model and the prognostic score were assessed by c-statistic. The prognostic score was validated using a 10-fold cross-validation.
RESULTS
The risk of death or LT within 3years was related to eight characteristics. The development and the validation provided excellent results for the prognostic score; the c-statistic was 0.91 and 0.90 respectively.
CONCLUSION
The score developed to predict 3-year death or LT in adults with CF might be useful for clinicians to identify patients requiring specialized evaluation for LT.
背景
囊性纤维化 (CF) 患者的治疗进展导致过去几十年预后得到改善。我们旨在重新评估 CF 的预后因素，并提供一个预测评分，以预测成年患者在 3 年内死亡或肺移植 (LT) 的风险。
方法
我们使用法国 CF 登记处的数据开发了一个逻辑模型，并将系数组合成一个预后评分。通过 c 统计量评估模型和预后评分的判别能力。使用 10 倍交叉验证验证了预后评分。
结果
3 年内死亡或 LT 的风险与八个特征有关。该预测评分的开发和验证结果非常出色；c 统计量分别为 0.91 和 0.90。
结论
该评分用于预测 CF 成年患者 3 年内死亡或 LT 的发生，可能有助于临床医生识别需要进行 LT 专门评估的患者。
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