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实施先进自动碰撞通知后死亡率降低的估计。

Estimate of mortality reduction with implementation of advanced automatic collision notification.

作者信息

Lee Ellen, Wu Jingshu, Kang Thomas, Craig Matthew

机构信息

a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration , Washington , DC.

出版信息

Traffic Inj Prev. 2017 May 29;18(sup1):S24-S30. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2017.1317090. Epub 2017 Apr 6.

DOI:10.1080/15389588.2017.1317090
PMID:28384071
Abstract

OBJECTIVE

Advanced Automatic Collision Notification (AACN) is a system on a motor vehicle that notifies a public safety answering point (PSAP), either directly or through a third party, that the vehicle has had a crash. AACN systems enable earlier notification of a motor vehicle crash and provide an injury prediction that can help dispatchers and first responders make better decisions about how and where to transport the patient, thus getting the patient to definitive care sooner. The purposes of the current research are to identify the target population that could benefit from AACN, and to develop a reasonable estimate range of potential lives saved with implementation of AACN within the vehicle fleet.

METHODS

Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) years 2009-2015 and National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) years 2000-2015 were obtained. FARS data were used to determine absolute estimates of the target population who may receive benefit from AACN. These estimates accounted for a number of factors, such as whether a fatal occupant had nearby access to a trauma center and also was correctly identified by the injury severity prediction algorithm as having a "high probability of severe injury." NASS-CDS data were used to provide relative comparisons among subsets of the population. Specifically, relative survival rate ratios between occupants treated at trauma centers versus at non-trauma centers were determined using the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. Finally, the fatality reduction rate associated with trauma center care was combined with the previously published fatality reduction rate for faster notification time to develop a range for possible lives saved.

RESULTS

Two relevant target populations were identified. A larger subset of 6893 fatalities can benefit only from earlier notification associated with AACN. A smaller subgroup of between 1495 and 2330 fatalities can benefit from both earlier notification and change in treatment destination (i.e., non-trauma center to trauma center). A Kaplan-Meier life curve and a multiple proportional hazard model were used to predict the benefits associated with transport to a trauma center. The resulting range for potential lives saved annually was 360 to 721.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis provides the estimates of lives that could potentially be saved with full implementation of AACN and universal cell coverage availability. This represents a fatality reduction of approximately 1.6% to 3.3% per year, and more than double the lives saved by earlier notification alone. In conclusion, AACN is a postcrash technology with a promising potential for safety benefit. AACN is therefore a key component of integrated safety systems that aim to protect occupants across the entire crash spectrum.

摘要

目的

先进自动碰撞通知系统(AACN)是一种安装在机动车上的系统,可直接或通过第三方通知公共安全应答点(PSAP)车辆发生了碰撞。AACN系统能够更早地通知机动车碰撞事故,并提供伤害预测,这有助于调度员和急救人员更好地决定如何以及将患者送往何处接受治疗,从而使患者更快地得到确定性治疗。本研究的目的是确定可能从AACN中受益的目标人群,并对在车队中实施AACN后可能挽救的潜在生命数量进行合理估计。

方法

获取了2009 - 2015年死亡分析报告系统(FARS)以及2000 - 2015年国家汽车抽样系统 - 碰撞worthiness数据系统(NASS - CDS)的数据。FARS数据用于确定可能从AACN中受益的目标人群的绝对估计数。这些估计考虑了多个因素,例如致命乘客附近是否有创伤中心,以及伤害严重程度预测算法是否正确识别其有“重伤高概率”。NASS - CDS数据用于提供人群子集之间的相对比较。具体而言,使用非参数Kaplan - Meier估计器确定在创伤中心接受治疗的乘客与在非创伤中心接受治疗的乘客之间的相对生存率比率。最后,将与创伤中心治疗相关的死亡率降低率与先前公布的更快通知时间的死亡率降低率相结合,以得出可能挽救生命的范围。

结果

确定了两个相关的目标人群。一个较大的子集,即6893例死亡,仅能从与AACN相关的更早通知中受益。一个较小的子群体,死亡人数在1495至2330之间,既能从更早通知中受益,也能从治疗目的地的改变(即从非创伤中心到创伤中心)中受益。使用Kaplan - Meier生存曲线和多比例风险模型来预测与转运至创伤中心相关的益处。每年可能挽救的潜在生命数量范围为360至721例。

结论

本分析提供了全面实施AACN且具备普遍手机覆盖情况下可能挽救生命的估计数。这意味着每年死亡率降低约1.6%至3.3%,且仅更早通知所挽救的生命数量增加了一倍多。总之,AACN是一种具有安全效益潜力的碰撞后技术。因此,AACN是旨在保护整个碰撞范围内驾乘人员的综合安全系统的关键组成部分。

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