Soltani Atousa, Sadiq Rehan, Hewage Kasun
School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, 1137 Alumni Avenue, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada.
School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, 1137 Alumni Avenue, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada.
J Environ Manage. 2017 Jul 15;197:305-315. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.03.079.
Municipal solid waste treatment options are not necessarily pragmatic if the stakeholders in the system don't mutually agree on their shares of liabilities. Stakeholders will select an option if their benefits are maximized and costs are minimized. A decision support framework is required to assess various waste treatment options and predict the optimal decision, considering multiple criteria and conflicting preferences of multiple stakeholders. Because of the inherent complexity, uncertainty is unavoidable and should be acknowledged to enhance the reliability in the decision-making process. Uncertainties in the cost and benefit estimates, and stakeholders' ability in verbalizing their preferences and their knowledge about each other's priorities can impact the outcome of such environmental management problem. In this study, uncertainty assessment methods such as sensitivity analysis, fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process, and Bayesian games have been explored. A case study in Vancouver (BC, Canada) has been used as a proof of concept.
如果系统中的利益相关者不能就各自的责任份额达成一致，城市固体废物处理方案不一定切实可行。如果利益最大化且成本最小化，利益相关者就会选择一种方案。需要一个决策支持框架来评估各种废物处理方案，并预测最优决策，同时考虑多个标准和多个利益相关者相互冲突的偏好。由于其固有的复杂性，不确定性不可避免，应该予以承认，以提高决策过程的可靠性。成本和效益估计中的不确定性，以及利益相关者表达偏好的能力和他们对彼此优先事项的了解，可能会影响此类环境管理问题的结果。在本研究中，探索了敏感性分析、模糊层次分析法和贝叶斯博弈等不确定性评估方法。加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华市的一个案例研究被用作概念验证。
