de Melo Silas Nogueira, Pereira Débora V S, Andresen Martin A, Matias Lindon Fonseca
1 University of Campinas, Brazil.
2 Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada.
Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol. 2018 May;62(7):1967-1991. doi: 10.1177/0306624X17703654. Epub 2017 Apr 12.
Temporal and spatial patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil, are analyzed considering the relevance of routine activity theory in a Latin American context. We use geo-referenced criminal event data, 2010-2013, analyzing spatial patterns using census tracts and temporal patterns considering seasons, months, days, and hours. Our analyses include difference in means tests, count-based regression models, and Kulldorff's scan test. We find that crime in Campinas, Brazil, exhibits both temporal and spatial-temporal patterns. However, the presence of these patterns at the different temporal scales varies by crime type. Specifically, not all crime types have statistically significant temporal patterns at all scales of analysis. As such, routine activity theory works well to explain temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil. However, local knowledge of Brazilian culture is necessary for understanding a portion of these crime patterns.
考虑到日常活动理论在拉丁美洲背景下的相关性，对巴西坎皮纳斯的犯罪时空模式进行了分析。我们使用了2010年至2013年的地理参考犯罪事件数据，利用普查区分析空间模式，并考虑季节、月份、日期和小时来分析时间模式。我们的分析包括均值差异检验、基于计数的回归模型和库尔朵夫扫描检验。我们发现，巴西坎皮纳斯的犯罪呈现出时间和时空模式。然而，这些模式在不同时间尺度上的存在因犯罪类型而异。具体而言，并非所有犯罪类型在所有分析尺度上都具有统计学上显著的时间模式。因此，日常活动理论能够很好地解释巴西坎皮纳斯犯罪的时间和时空模式。然而，要理解这些犯罪模式的一部分，需要了解巴西文化的当地知识。
