Radosavljevic V, Belojevic G, Pavlovic N
Military Academy, University of Defence, Belgrade, Serbia.
Institute of Hygiene and Medical Ecology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
Public Health. 2017 May;146:134-139. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2017.01.025. Epub 2017 Feb 23.
To propose a simple and effective tool for decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood.
Virtual testing of a tool in a real event.
A four-component tool was applied to build an alternative scenario of the catastrophic river flood in Obrenovac, Serbia, on May 2014. The components of this tool are: (1) the amount of precipitation above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; (2) upstream river discharge above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; (3) upstream river level above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; and (4) worsening of the hydrometeorological situation in the following 48 h.
In the early morning of 16 May 2014, a rapid river wave flooded 80% of the Obrenovac territory. There were 13 deaths due to drowning. Application of the study tool shows that these lives could have been saved, as the score to recommend general evacuation was reached 1 day before the flooding. The application of this tool to two previous great floods in Serbia shows that the score to recommend general evacuation was reached either 1 day before or on the onset of flash flooding.
Due to its simplicity, this tool is universally applicable to facilitate decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood, and it should be further tested in future similar catastrophes.
提出一种简单有效的工具，用于在河流快速洪水期间做出全面疏散的决策。
在实际事件中对工具进行虚拟测试。
应用一个由四个部分组成的工具，构建2014年5月塞尔维亚奥布雷诺瓦茨灾难性河流洪水的替代情景。该工具的组成部分包括：（1）高于之前所有测量值第95百分位数的降水量；（2）高于之前所有测量值第95百分位数的上游河流流量；（3）高于之前所有测量值第95百分位数的上游河流水位；以及（4）未来48小时内水文气象状况的恶化。
2014年5月16日清晨，一股快速的河浪淹没了奥布雷诺瓦茨80%的区域。有13人溺水死亡。应用该研究工具表明，这些生命本可以挽救，因为在洪水发生前1天就达到了建议全面疏散的分数。将此工具应用于塞尔维亚之前的两次大洪水表明，建议全面疏散的分数在山洪暴发前1天或暴发时就已达到。
由于其简单性，该工具普遍适用于在河流快速洪水期间协助做出全面疏散的决策，并且应在未来类似灾难中进一步测试。
