Senior Consultant Disaster and Flood Risk Management, HKV Consultants, The Netherlands.
Disasters. 2014 Jul;38(3):610-35. doi: 10.1111/disa.12059.
A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the 'top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.
传统的疏散规划决策观点认为，在面临不确定的威胁时，有一种确定的方法可以定义最佳决策。换句话说，威胁、决策和执行后果之间存在线性关系。备选方案和不确定性的影响都没有考虑在内。本研究考虑了由于荷兰洪水而进行的大规模疏散的“最高战略决策”。研究结果表明，由于决策者及其危机管理人员（作为顾问）的参与，最高战略决策过程本身就是概率性的。本文得出结论，确定性规划是不够的，建议进行概率规划，既要考虑决策过程本身的不确定性，也要考虑其他不确定性，如预测、公民反应和基础设施的容量。这会导致不那么乐观但更现实的策略，并需要注意替代策略。
