CNR IRPI, via della Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy; University of Perugia, Department of Physics and Geology, via A. Pascoli, 06123 Perugia, Italy.
CMCC Foundation, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Via Maiorise, 81043 Capua (CE), Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Oct 15;596-597:417-426. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.103. Epub 2017 Apr 25.
According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an increase in the frequency and the intensity of extreme rainfall is expected in the Mediterranean area. Among different impacts, this increase might result in a variation in the frequency and the spatial distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, and in an increase in the size of the population exposed to landslide risk. We propose a method for the regional-scale evaluation of future variations in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides, in response to changes in rainfall regimes. We exploit information on the occurrence of 603 rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, in the period 1981-2010, and daily rainfall data recorded in the same period in the region. Furthermore, we use high-resolution climate projections based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In particular, we consider the mean variations between a 30-year future period (2036-2065) and the reference period 1981-2010 in three variables assumed as proxy for landslide activity: annual rainfall, seasonal cumulated rainfall, and annual maxima of daily rainfall. Based on reliable correlations between landslide occurrence and weather variables estimated in the reference period, we assess future variations in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence for all the municipalities of Calabria. A +45.7% and +21.2% average regional variation in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence is expected in the region for the period 2036-2065, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. We also investigate the future variations in the impact of rainfall-induced landslides on the population of Calabria. We find a +80.2% and +54.5% increase in the impact on the population for the period 2036-2065, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The proposed method is quantitative and reproducible, thus it can be applied in similar regions, where adequate landslide and rainfall information is available.
根据政府间气候变化专门委员会的第五次报告，预计在地中海地区，极端降雨的频率和强度将会增加。在不同的影响中，这种增加可能导致降雨诱发滑坡的频率和空间分布发生变化，以及暴露在滑坡风险下的人口数量增加。我们提出了一种方法，用于评估未来降雨诱发滑坡发生的变化，以应对降雨模式的变化。我们利用了意大利南部卡拉布里亚地区 1981-2010 年期间发生的 603 次降雨诱发滑坡的发生信息，以及同期该地区记录的每日降雨数据。此外，我们还使用了基于 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景的高分辨率气候预测。特别是，我们考虑了三个被认为是滑坡活动代理变量的变量在未来 30 年（2036-2065 年）与参考期（1981-2010 年）之间的平均变化：年降雨量、季节累积降雨量和日降雨量的年最大值。基于在参考期内估计的滑坡发生与天气变量之间的可靠相关性，我们评估了卡拉布里亚所有城市未来降雨诱发滑坡发生的变化。在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下，预计该地区在 2036-2065 年期间，降雨诱发滑坡发生的平均区域变化分别为+45.7%和+21.2%。我们还研究了降雨诱发滑坡对卡拉布里亚人口的影响的未来变化。在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下，预计在 2036-2065 年期间，对人口的影响分别增加+80.2%和+54.5%。所提出的方法是定量和可重复的，因此可以应用于具有足够滑坡和降雨信息的类似地区。
