Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain.
Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain.
Environ Int. 2017 Jul;104:155-162. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2017.04.003. Epub 2017 Apr 26.
In the next 25years, transformative changes, in particular the rapid pace of technological development and data availability, will require environmental epidemiologists to prioritize what should (rather than could) be done to most effectively improve population health.
In this essay, we map out key driving forces that will shape environmental epidemiology in the next 25years. We also identify how the field should adapt to best take advantage of coming opportunities and prepare for challenges.
Future environmental epidemiologists will face a world shaped by longer lifespans but also larger burdens of chronic health conditions; shifting populations by region and into urban areas; and global environmental change. Rapidly evolving technologies, particularly in sensors and OMICs, will present opportunities for the field. How should it respond? We argue, the field best adapts to a changing world by focusing on healthy aging; evidence gaps, especially in susceptible populations and low-income countries; and by developing approaches to better handle complexity and more formalized analysis.
Environmental epidemiology informing disease prevention will continue to be valuable. However, the field must adapt to remain relevant. In particular, the field must ensure that public health importance drives research questions, while seizing the opportunities presented by new technologies. Environmental epidemiologists of the future will require different, refined skills to work effectively across disciplines, ask the right questions, and implement appropriate study designs in a data-rich world.
在未来 25 年内，变革性的变化，特别是技术发展和数据可用性的快速步伐，将要求环境流行病学家优先考虑应该（而不是能够）做些什么来最有效地改善人口健康。
在本文中，我们勾勒出将塑造未来 25 年内环境流行病学的关键驱动因素。我们还确定了该领域应如何适应，以充分利用即将到来的机遇并为挑战做好准备。
未来的环境流行病学家将面临一个寿命更长但慢性病负担更大的世界；人口在区域和城市地区的转移；以及全球环境变化。快速发展的技术，特别是传感器和 OMICS 技术，将为该领域带来机遇。它应该如何应对？我们认为，该领域通过专注于健康老龄化、证据空白，特别是在易感人群和低收入国家、以及通过开发更好地处理复杂性和更正式分析的方法，来适应不断变化的世界是最佳选择。
为疾病预防提供信息的环境流行病学将继续具有价值。然而，该领域必须适应才能保持相关性。特别是，该领域必须确保公共卫生的重要性推动研究问题，同时抓住新技术带来的机遇。未来的环境流行病学家需要不同的、精炼的技能，以便在一个数据丰富的世界中跨学科有效地工作、提出正确的问题和实施适当的研究设计。
