Avra T D, Abell K M, Shane D D, Theurer M E, Larson R L, White B J
J Anim Sci. 2017 Apr;95(4):1521-1527. doi: 10.2527/jas.2016.1254.
The objective of this project was to identify risk factors associated with the probability of failing to resolve clinical signs of bovine respiratory disease (BRD) after initial antimicrobial treatment. A retrospective data analysis was performed with 194,062 animals treated for BRD with an antimicrobial from 10 U.S. feedlots from 2005 to 2009. A binary variable classified cattle as a treatment failure if they were retreated for BRD or died following an initial BRD treatment. A generalized logistic mixed model was created to evaluate associations of quarter of the year at feedlot arrival, arrival weight, sex, risk classification (high vs. low), days on feed at first BRD treatment, and rectal temperature at first BRD treatment and all 2-way interactions with the probability of first treatment failure for BRD. A total of 64,683 out of 194,062 (33.3%) of cattle initially treated for BRD were classified as treatment failures due to death or retreatment. Multiple 2-way interactions were present. High-risk calves had greater probability of first treatment failure compared with low-risk calves, but this effect was modified by quarter of arrival, days on feed at first treatment, and rectal temperature category. The effect of arrival weight category was modified by days on feed at first treatment of BRD and quarter of arrival for probability of first treatment failure. Multiple arrival and treatment characteristics were associated with the probability of first BRD treatment failure. Knowledge of these factors can lead future prospective studies to improve the prediction of treatment failure and provide baseline results for the industry.
本项目的目的是确定与初次抗菌治疗后未能消除牛呼吸道疾病(BRD)临床症状的概率相关的风险因素。对2005年至2009年期间美国10个饲养场用抗菌药物治疗BRD的194,062头动物进行了回顾性数据分析。如果牛在初次BRD治疗后因BRD再次接受治疗或死亡,则将其分类为治疗失败的二元变量。创建了一个广义逻辑混合模型,以评估饲养场到达时的季度、到达体重、性别、风险分类(高风险与低风险)、首次BRD治疗时的饲养天数以及首次BRD治疗时的直肠温度,以及所有双向交互作用与BRD首次治疗失败概率之间的关联。在最初接受BRD治疗的194,062头牛中,共有64,683头(33.3%)因死亡或再次治疗被分类为治疗失败。存在多个双向交互作用。与低风险犊牛相比,高风险犊牛首次治疗失败的概率更高,但这种影响会因到达季度、首次治疗时的饲养天数和直肠温度类别而改变。到达体重类别的影响会因首次BRD治疗时的饲养天数和到达季度对首次治疗失败概率的影响而改变。多个到达和治疗特征与首次BRD治疗失败的概率相关。了解这些因素可以引导未来的前瞻性研究,以改善对治疗失败的预测,并为该行业提供基线结果。