McCall Alan, Fanchini Maurizio, Coutts Aaron J
Int J Sports Physiol Perform. 2017 May;12(5):704-706. doi: 10.1123/ijspp.2017-0137. Epub 2017 May 10.
In high-performance sport, science and medicine practitioners employ a variety of physical and psychological tests, training and match monitoring, and injury-screening tools for a variety of reasons, mainly to predict performance, identify talented individuals, and flag when an injury will occur. The ability to "predict" outcomes such as performance, talent, or injury is arguably sport science and medicine's modern-day equivalent of the "Quest for the Holy Grail." The purpose of this invited commentary is to highlight the common misinterpretation of studies investigating association to those actually analyzing prediction and to provide practitioners with simple recommendations to quickly distinguish between methods pertaining to association and those of prediction.
在高性能运动领域，科学与医学从业者出于多种原因采用各种身体和心理测试、训练与比赛监测以及损伤筛查工具，主要目的是预测表现、识别有天赋的个体以及预测损伤何时会发生。“预测”诸如表现、天赋或损伤等结果的能力，可以说是体育科学与医学在当代的“圣杯探寻”。这篇特邀评论的目的是强调在研究中，人们对关联性研究与实际分析预测的研究普遍存在的误解，并为从业者提供简单建议，以便快速区分与关联性相关的方法和预测方法。
