Lotze Heike K, Flemming Joanna Mills, Magera Anna M
Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, P.O. Box 15000, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, P.O. Box 15000, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada.
Conserv Biol. 2017 Dec;31(6):1301-1311. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12957. Epub 2017 Sep 5.
{en} Over the past decades, much research has focused on understanding the critical factors for marine extinctions with the aim of preventing further species losses in the oceans. Although conservation and management strategies are enabling several species and populations to recover, others remain at low abundance levels or continue to decline. To understand these discrepancies, we used a published database on abundance trends of 137 populations of marine mammals worldwide and compiled data on 28 potentially critical factors for recovery. We then applied random forests and additive mixed models to determine which intrinsic and extrinsic factors are critical for the recovery of marine mammals. A mix of life-history characteristics, ecological traits, phylogenetic relatedness, population size, geographic range, human impacts, and management efforts explained why populations recovered or not. Consistently, species with lower age at maturity and intermediate habitat area were more likely to recover, which is consistent with life-history and ecological theory. Body size, trophic level, social interactions, dominant habitat, ocean basin, and habitat disturbance also explained some differences in recovery patterns. Overall, a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors were important for species' recovery, pointing to cumulative effects. Our results provide insight for improving conservation and management strategies to enhance recoveries in the future.
在过去几十年里,许多研究聚焦于了解海洋物种灭绝的关键因素,旨在防止海洋中更多物种消失。尽管保护和管理策略使一些物种和种群数量得以恢复,但其他物种仍处于低丰度水平或持续减少。为了理解这些差异,我们使用了一个已发表的关于全球137个海洋哺乳动物种群丰度趋势的数据库,并收集了28个可能对恢复至关重要的因素的数据。然后,我们应用随机森林和加法混合模型来确定哪些内在和外在因素对海洋哺乳动物的恢复至关重要。生活史特征、生态特性、系统发育相关性、种群规模、地理分布范围、人类影响和管理措施等多种因素共同解释了种群数量恢复与否的原因。一直以来,成熟年龄较低且栖息地面积中等的物种更有可能恢复,这与生活史和生态学理论相符。体型、营养级、社会互动、主要栖息地、大洋盆地和栖息地干扰也解释了恢复模式中的一些差异。总体而言,多种内在和外在因素对物种恢复很重要,这表明存在累积效应。我们的研究结果为改进保护和管理策略提供了见解,以促进未来的恢复。