Coastal and Ocean Management Institute, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361102, China.
Department of Finance, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2018 Feb;25(4):3093-3107. doi: 10.1007/s11356-017-9147-6. Epub 2017 May 17.
Regional analysis of environmental issues has always been a hot topic in the field of sustainable development. Because the different levels of economic growth, urbanization, resource endowments, etc. in different regions generate apparently different ecological responses, a better description and comparison across different regions will provide more valuable implications for ecological improvement and policymaking. In this study, seven typical bays in southeast China that are a rapid developing area were selected to quantitatively analyze the relationship between socioeconomic development and coastal environmental quality. Based on the water quality data from 2007 to 2015, the multivariate statistical method was applied to analyze the potential environmental risks and to classify the seven bays based on their environmental quality status. The possible variation trends of environmental indices were predicted based on the cross-regional panel data by Environmental Kuznets Curve. The results showed that there were significant regional differences among the seven bays, especially Quanzhou, Xiamen, and Luoyuan Bays, suffered from severer artificial disturbances than other bays, despite their different development patterns. Socioeconomic development level was significantly associated with some water quality indices (pH, DIN, PO-P); the association was roughly positive: the areas with higher GDP per capita have some worse water quality indices. In addition, the decreasing trend of pH values and the increasing trend of nutrient concentration in the seven bays will continue in the foreseeable future. In consideration of the variation trends, the limiting nutrient strategy should be implemented to mitigate the deterioration of the coastal environments.
区域环境问题分析一直是可持续发展领域的热点。由于不同地区经济增长水平、城市化水平、资源禀赋等存在差异，生态响应明显不同，因此对不同地区进行更好的描述和比较，将为生态改善和决策制定提供更有价值的启示。本研究选取中国东南沿海七个典型海湾，该地区经济发展迅速，定量分析社会经济发展与沿海环境质量的关系。基于 2007 年至 2015 年的水质数据，应用多元统计方法分析潜在的环境风险，并根据环境质量状况对七个海湾进行分类。基于跨区域面板数据，利用环境库兹涅茨曲线预测环境指数的可能变化趋势。结果表明，七个海湾之间存在显著的区域差异，特别是泉州湾、厦门湾和罗源湾受到的人为干扰比其他海湾更为严重，尽管它们的发展模式不同。社会经济发展水平与部分水质指标（pH 值、DIN、PO-P）显著相关；这种关联大致呈正相关：人均 GDP 较高的地区水质指标较差。此外，未来七个海湾的 pH 值呈下降趋势，营养盐浓度呈上升趋势。考虑到这些变化趋势，应实施限制营养盐策略，以减轻沿海环境的恶化。
