State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361102, China; Coastal and Ocean Management Institute, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361102, China; College of the Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361102, China.
Fisheries Resources Monitoring Center of Fujian Province, Fuzhou 350003, China.
Mar Environ Res. 2023 Apr;186:105934. doi: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105934. Epub 2023 Mar 1.
Xiamen is the epitome of having steady economic growth and non-negligible environmental stress over decades. Several restoration programs have been applied to address the conflicts between heavy environmental pressures and human activities, but the response of current coastal protection policies to the marine environment remains to be assessed. Therefore, to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of marine conservation policies under regional economic growth in Xiamen, quantitative techniques including elasticity analysis and dummy variable regression models were applied. Here we show the potential relationship between seawater quality (pH, COD, DIN and DRP) and economic growth including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Ocean Product (GOP), to evaluate the ongoing related policies by using over 10 years of data (2007-2018). According to our estimates, a GDP growth rate of 8.5% represents a stable economic climate that is favorable for the overall rehabilitation of the local coastal environment. The results of the quantitative research indicate a strong relationship between economic development and seawater quality, with marine protection regulations serving as the direct cause. As GDP growth and pH are significantly positively correlated (coef. = 0.8139, p = 0.012), ocean acidification has decreased over the last decade. With an inversely proportional correlation with GDP (coef. = 0.8456, p = 0.002) and GOP (coef. = 0.8046, p = 0.005), the trend in COD concentrations effectively meets the targets of current pollution control legislation. By using a dummy variable regression model, we found that legislation is the most effective way in seawater recovery in the GOP section, and positive externalities of marine protection frameworks are also estimated. Meanwhile, it is predicted that the negative effects from the non-GOP section will gradually affect the coastal environmental quality gradually. An overall framework for controlling marine pollutant discharges, giving equal attention to maritime and non-maritime anthropogenic activities should be promoted and updated.
厦门是经济增长稳定且面临不可忽视的环境压力长达数十年的缩影。为了解决环境压力与人类活动之间的冲突，已经实施了几项恢复计划，但当前的沿海保护政策对海洋环境的响应仍有待评估。因此，为了评估厦门经济增长背景下海洋保护政策的有效性和效率，采用了弹性分析和虚拟变量回归模型等定量技术。在这里，我们展示了海水质量（pH 值、COD、DIN 和 DRP）与包括国内生产总值（GDP）和海洋总生产总值（GOP）在内的经济增长之间的潜在关系，以利用超过 10 年的数据（2007-2018 年）评估正在进行的相关政策。根据我们的估计，8.5%的 GDP 增长率代表了有利于当地沿海环境全面恢复的稳定经济环境。定量研究的结果表明，经济发展与海水质量之间存在很强的关系，海洋保护法规是直接原因。由于 GDP 增长与 pH 值呈显著正相关（系数=0.8139，p=0.012），因此在过去十年中海洋酸化程度有所降低。与 GDP（系数=0.8456，p=0.002）和 GOP（系数=0.8046，p=0.005）呈反比，COD 浓度的趋势有效地符合当前污染控制立法的目标。通过使用虚拟变量回归模型，我们发现，在 GOP 部分，立法是恢复海水的最有效方法，并且还估计了海洋保护框架的正外部性。同时，预计非 GOP 部分的负面影响将逐渐影响沿海环境质量。应该促进和更新一个全面的控制海洋污染物排放框架，平等关注海洋和非海洋人为活动。
