Mo Ling-Yun, Liu Jie, Qin Li-Tang, Zeng Hong-Hu, Liang Yan-Peng
Guangxi Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Control Theory and Technology, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin, 541004, People's Republic of China.
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin, 541004, People's Republic of China.
Bull Environ Contam Toxicol. 2017 Jul;99(1):17-22. doi: 10.1007/s00128-017-2099-1. Epub 2017 May 18.
Two-stage prediction (TSP) model had been developed to predict toxicities of mixtures containing complex components, but its prediction power need to be further validated. Six phenolic compounds and six heavy metals were selected as mixture components. One mixture (M1) was built with equivalent-effect concentration ratio and four mixtures (M2-M5) were designed with fixed concentration ratio. In M1-M5, the toxicities were well predicted by TSP model, while CA overestimated and IA underestimated the toxicities. In M1-M5, compared with the actual mixture EC50 value, the prediction errors of TSP model (13.9%, 17.9%, 19.2%, and 17.3% and 15.8%, respectively) were significantly lower than those in the CA (higher than 30%) and IA models (20.9%, 33.0%, 20.6%, 21.8% and 12.5%, respectively). Thus, the TSP model performed better than the CA and IA model.
已经开发了两阶段预测(TSP)模型来预测含有复杂成分的混合物的毒性,但其预测能力需要进一步验证。选择了六种酚类化合物和六种重金属作为混合物成分。一种混合物(M1)以等效效应浓度比构建,四种混合物(M2 - M5)以固定浓度比设计。在M1 - M5中,TSP模型能很好地预测毒性,而联合作用相加法(CA)高估了毒性,独立作用法(IA)低估了毒性。在M1 - M5中,与实际混合物的半数效应浓度(EC50)值相比,TSP模型的预测误差(分别为13.9%、17.9%、19.2%、17.3%和15.8%)显著低于联合作用相加法(高于30%)和独立作用法模型(分别为20.9%、33.0%、20.6%、21.8%和12.5%)。因此,TSP模型的表现优于联合作用相加法和独立作用法模型。