2015年的超额死亡率：意大利北部的时间序列及死因分析

Excess mortality in 2015: a time series and cause-of-death analysis in Northern Italy.

作者信息

Fedeli Ugo, Capodaglio Giulia, Schievano Elena, Ferroni Eliana, Corti Maria Chiara

机构信息

SER-Epidemiological Department, Veneto Region, Passaggio Gaudenzio 1, 35131, Padua (PD), Italy.

出版信息

Aging Clin Exp Res. 2017 Dec;29(6):1291-1294. doi: 10.1007/s40520-017-0773-0. Epub 2017 May 18.

DOI:10.1007/s40520-017-0773-0

PMID:28523608

Abstract

AIMS

To investigate the excess mortality registered in the Veneto Region (Northern Italy) in 2015.

METHODS

A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model was applied to predict overall mortality expected in 2014-2015 based on that observed in 2000-2013. The annual percent change in age-standardized rates (APC) was estimated for specific causes of death in 2007-2015.

RESULTS

Compared to 2014, the number of deaths and the overall age-standardized mortality increased in 2015 by 7.8 and 4.5%, respectively. When accounting for time trends, the observed mortality was lower than expected in 2014 (-4.5%) and slightly higher in 2015 (+1.1%). In 2015, mortality increased especially for causes with an already rising trend: neurologic/psychiatric (APC = 1.2; 95% Confidence Interval 0.3-2.0%) and infectious diseases (APC = 5.9; 3.6-8.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Short-term changes and long-term trends in mortality must be interpreted within the frame of a rapid growth in the population of elderly subjects affected by multiple comorbidities.

摘要

目的

调查2015年意大利北部威尼托地区登记的超额死亡率。

方法

应用季节性自回归积分滑动平均模型，根据2000 - 2013年观察到的死亡率预测2014 - 2015年的预期总死亡率。估计2007 - 2015年特定死因的年龄标准化率年度变化百分比（APC）。

结果

与2014年相比，2015年的死亡人数和总体年龄标准化死亡率分别增加了7.8%和4.5%。考虑时间趋势时，2014年观察到的死亡率低于预期（-4.5%），2015年略高于预期（+1.1%）。2015年，死亡率上升尤其体现在那些已经呈上升趋势的病因上：神经/精神疾病（APC = 1.2；95%置信区间0.3 - 2.0%）和传染病（APC = 5.9；3.6 - 8.2%）。