Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, 53201, USA.
School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583, USA.
Int J Biometeorol. 2017 Sep;61(Suppl 1):29-50. doi: 10.1007/s00484-017-1371-8. Epub 2017 May 19.
In recent decades, phenology has become an important tool by which to measure both the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the feedback of ecosystems to the climate system. However, there has been little attempt to date to systematically quantify the increase in the number of scientific publications with a focus on phenology and climate change. In order to partially address this issue, we examined the number of articles (original papers, reviews and short communications) containing the terms 'phenology' and 'climate change' in the title, abstract or keywords, published in the International Journal of Biometeorology in the 60 years since its inception in 1957. We manually inspected all issues prior to 1987 for the search terms and subsequently used the search facility on the Web of Science online database. The overall number of articles published per decade remained relatively constant (255-378) but rose rapidly to 1053 in the most recent decade (2007-2016), accompanied by an increase (41-172) in the number of articles containing the search terms. A number of factors may have contributed to this rise, including the recognition of the value of phenology as an indicator of climate change and the initiation in 2010 of a series of conferences focusing on phenology which subsequently led to two special issues of the journal. The word 'phenology' was in use from the first issue, whereas 'climate change' only emerged in 1987 and peaked in 2014. New technologies such as satellite remote sensing and the internet led to an expansion of and greater access to a growing reservoir of phenological information. The application of phenological data included determining the impact of warming of phenophases, predicting wine quality and the pollen season, demonstrating the potential for mismatch to occur and both reconstructing and forecasting climate. Even though this analysis was limited to one journal, it is likely to be indicative of a similar trend across other scientific publications.
近几十年来，物候学已成为衡量气候变化对生态系统的影响以及生态系统对气候系统反馈的重要工具。然而，迄今为止，人们很少试图系统地量化专注于物候学和气候变化的科学出版物数量的增加。为了部分解决这个问题，我们检查了 1957 年创刊以来的《国际生物气象学杂志》中标题、摘要或关键词中包含“物候”和“气候变化”这两个术语的文章（原始论文、综述和短通讯）的数量。我们在 1987 年之前手动检查了所有问题，并在 Web of Science 在线数据库上使用了搜索功能。每十年发表的文章总数相对保持不变（255-378 篇），但在最近十年（2007-2016 年）迅速增加到 1053 篇，同时包含搜索词的文章数量也有所增加（41-172 篇）。导致这种增长的因素有很多，包括认识到物候学作为气候变化指标的价值，以及 2010 年开始举办一系列专注于物候学的会议，随后该会议导致该杂志出版了两个特刊。“物候学”一词从第一期就开始使用，而“气候变化”一词直到 1987 年才出现，并在 2014 年达到顶峰。新技术，如卫星遥感和互联网，导致物候学信息的扩展和更容易获取。物候学数据的应用包括确定物候期变暖的影响、预测葡萄酒质量和花粉季节、证明发生不匹配的可能性以及重建和预测气候。尽管这项分析仅限于一份杂志，但它很可能反映了其他科学出版物的类似趋势。
