Aheto Justice Moses K, Taylor Benjamin M, Keegan Thomas J, Diggle Peter J
Lancaster Medical School, Faculty of Health and Medicine, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4YB, United Kingdom.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2017 Jun;21:37-46. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2017.02.003. Epub 2017 Mar 2.
Spatio-temporal variation in under-5-year-old children malnutrition remains unstudied in most developing countries like Ghana. This study explores and forecasts the spatio-temporal patterns in childhood chronic malnutrition among these children. We also investigate the effect of maternal education on childhood malnutrition.
We analysed data on 10,036 children residing in 1516 geographic locations. A spatio-temporal model was fitted to the data and was used to produce predictive maps of spatio-temporal variation in the probability of stunting.
The study found substantial spatio-temporal variation in the prevalence of stunting. Also, higher levels of mother's education were associated with decreased risk of being stunted.
Our spatio-temporal model captured variations in childhood stunting over place and time. Our method facilitates and enriches modelling and forecasting of future stunting prevalence to identify areas at high risk. Improving maternal education could be given greater consideration within an overall strategy for addressing childhood malnutrition.
在加纳等大多数发展中国家，5岁以下儿童营养不良的时空变化情况尚未得到研究。本研究探索并预测了这些儿童慢性营养不良的时空模式。我们还调查了母亲教育程度对儿童营养不良的影响。
我们分析了居住在1516个地理位置的10036名儿童的数据。对数据拟合了一个时空模型，并用于生成发育迟缓概率时空变化的预测图。
研究发现发育迟缓患病率存在显著的时空变化。此外，母亲教育程度较高与发育迟缓风险降低有关。
我们的时空模型捕捉了儿童发育迟缓在地点和时间上的变化。我们的方法有助于并丰富了对未来发育迟缓患病率的建模和预测，以确定高风险地区。在解决儿童营养不良的总体战略中，可更多考虑提高母亲教育程度。
