Nyabadza Farai, Coetzee Lezanie
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7600, South Africa.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2017;2017:4074197. doi: 10.1155/2017/4074197. Epub 2017 May 7.
The complex problem of drug abuse and drug-related crimes in communities in the Western Cape province cannot be studied in isolation but through the system they are embedded in. In this paper, a theoretical model to evaluate the syndemic of substance abuse and drug-related crimes within the Western Cape province of South Africa is constructed and explored. The dynamics of drug abuse and drug-related crimes within the Western Cape are simulated using STELLA software. The simulation results are consistent with the data from SACENDU and CrimeStats SA, highlighting the usefulness of such a model in designing and planning interventions to combat substance abuse and its related problems.
西开普省社区中药物滥用和与毒品相关犯罪的复杂问题不能孤立地研究，而应通过它们所嵌入的系统来研究。本文构建并探讨了一个理论模型，用于评估南非西开普省内药物滥用和与毒品相关犯罪的综合征。使用STELLA软件模拟了西开普省内药物滥用和与毒品相关犯罪的动态情况。模拟结果与南非国家毒品和药物滥用信息中心（SACENDU）以及南非犯罪统计（CrimeStats SA）的数据一致，突出了该模型在设计和规划干预措施以打击药物滥用及其相关问题方面的有用性。
