FACTORS DETERMINING THE ACCURACY OF CLADOGRAM ESTIMATION: EVALUATION USING COMPUTER SIMULATION.

We developed a simulation model of phylogenesis with which we generated a large number of phylogenies and associated data matrices. We examined the characteristics of these and evaluated the success of three taxonomic methods (Wagner parsimony, character compatibility, and UPGMA clustering) as estimators of phylogeny, paying particular attention to the consequences of changes in certain evolutionary assumptions: relative rate of evolution in three different evolutionary contexts (phyletic, parent lineage, and daughter lineage); relative rate of evolution in different directions (novel forward, convergent forward, or reverse); variation of evolutionary rates; and topology of the phylogenetic tree. Except for variation of evolutionary rates, all the evolutionary parameters that we controlled had significant effects on accuracy of phylogenetic reconstructions. Unexpectedly, the topology of the phylogeny was the most important single factor affecting accuracy; some phylogenies are more readily estimated than others for simply historical reasons. We conclude that none of the three estimation methods is very accurate, that the differences in accuracy among them are rather small, and that historical effects (the branching pattern of a phylogeny) may outweigh biological effects in determining the accuracy with which a phylogeny can be reconstructed.