CNR-IRPI, Via Amendola 122-I, 70126 Bari, Italy; University of Molise, Department of Biosciences and Territory, Contrada Fonte Lappone, 86090 Pesche, Isernia, Italy.
Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Dimitrie Racovita 12, 023994 Bucharest, Romania.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Dec 1;601-602:1147-1159. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.231. Epub 2017 Jun 9.
Land cover is one of the most important conditioning factors in landslide susceptibility analysis. Usually it is considered as a static factor, but it has proven to be dynamic, with changes occurring even in few decades. In this work the influence of land cover changes on landslide susceptibility are analyzed for the past and for future scenarios. For the application, an area representative of the hilly-low mountain sectors of the Italian Southern Apennines was chosen (Rivo basin, in Molise Region). With this purpose landslide inventories and land cover maps were produced for the years 1954, 1981 and 2007. Two alternative future scenarios were created for 2050, one which follows the past trend (2050-trend), and another one more extreme, foreseeing a decrease of forested and cultivated areas (2050-alternative). The landslide susceptibility analysis was performed using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation method for different time steps, investigating changes to susceptibility over time. The results show that environmental dynamics, such as land cover change, affect slope stability in time. In fact there is a decrease of susceptibility in the past and in the future 2050-trend scenario. This is due to the increase of forest or cultivated areas, that is probably determined by a better land management, water and soil control respect to other land cover types such as shrubland, pasture or bareland. Conversely the results revealed by the alternative scenario (2050-alternative), show how the decrease in forest and cultivated areas leads to an increase in landslide susceptibility. This can be related to the assumed worst climatic condition leading to a minor agricultural activity and lower extension of forested areas, possibly associated also to the effects of forest fires. The results suggest that conscious landscape management might contribute to determine a significant reduction in landslide susceptibility.
土地覆被是滑坡易发性分析中最重要的控制因素之一。通常情况下，它被视为静态因素，但事实证明它是动态的，即使在几十年内也会发生变化。在这项工作中，分析了土地覆被变化对过去和未来情景下滑坡易发性的影响。为此，选择了意大利南部阿普安纳山脉丘陵-低山区的一个具有代表性的区域（莫利塞地区的里沃流域）。为此，制作了 1954 年、1981 年和 2007 年的滑坡编目和土地覆被图。为 2050 年创建了两种替代的未来情景，一种是遵循过去的趋势（2050-trend），另一种则更加极端，预计森林和耕地面积减少（2050-alternative）。使用空间多标准评价方法对不同的时间步骤进行了滑坡易发性分析，研究了随时间推移的易发性变化。结果表明，环境动态，如土地覆被变化，会影响边坡的稳定性。事实上，过去和未来的 2050-trend 情景中的易发性都有所降低。这是由于森林或耕地面积的增加所致，这可能是由于对其他土地覆被类型（如灌丛、草地或裸地）进行了更好的土地管理、水土控制。相反，替代情景（2050-alternative）的结果表明，森林和耕地面积的减少如何导致滑坡易发性的增加。这可能与假设的最不利气候条件有关，导致农业活动减少，森林面积减少，可能还与森林火灾的影响有关。结果表明，有意识的景观管理可能有助于显著降低滑坡易发性。
