Division of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UPC BarcelonaTECH, Jordi Girona 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, Spain; Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, 222 South Tianshui Road, Lanzhou 730000, China.
Division of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UPC BarcelonaTECH, Jordi Girona 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Nov 25;693:133557. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.363. Epub 2019 Jul 23.
The effects of land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics on landslide susceptibility are not fully understood. This study evaluates the influence of LULC on landslide susceptibility and assesses the historic and future LULC changes in a high mountain region. A detailed inventory map showing the distribution of landslides was prepared based on the 2013 episode in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain). This inventory showed that LULC clearly affected landslide susceptibility. Both the number of landslides and the landslide density triggered in grassland and meadow was highest (52% and 2.0 landslides/km). In contrast, the landslide density in areas covered by forest and shrubs was much lower (15% and 0.4 landslides/km, and 23% and 1.7 landslides/km, respectively). Historical changes of LULC between 1946 and 2013 were determined by comparing aerial photographs. The results indicated that the forest and shrub areas increased by 68 and 65%, respectively; whereas grassland and scree areas decreased by 33 and 52%. Urban area also increased by 532%, especially between 1990 and 2001. Future LULC was predicted until 2097 using TerrSet software. The results showed that the forest area and urban area increased by 57 and 43%, severally; while shrubs, grassland and scree area decreased by 28, 46 and 78%, respectively. Heuristic and deterministic models were applied to create susceptibility maps, which classified the study area into four susceptibility degrees from very low to high. The maps were validated by the 2013 landslide dataset and showed satisfactory results using receiver operating characteristics curves and density graph method. Then, susceptibility maps until 2097 were calculated by the heuristic model and results revealed that landslide susceptibility will decrease by 48% for high-susceptible areas. In contrast, the areas of very-low susceptibility degree will increase 95%, while medium and low-susceptible areas will be more or less constant. This study only includes the effect of future LULC changes on the landslide susceptibility and does not analyze the future impacts of climate changes and the variation of rainfall conditions. Nevertheless, the results may be used as support for land management guidelines to reduce the risk of slope instabilities.
土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）动态对滑坡敏感性的影响尚不完全清楚。本研究评估了 LULC 对滑坡敏感性的影响，并评估了高山地区历史和未来的 LULC 变化。根据 2013 年西班牙比利牛斯山脉瓦尔达朗地区的事件，制作了详细的滑坡分布图。该清单显示，LULC 明显影响了滑坡敏感性。在草地和草甸中触发的滑坡数量和滑坡密度最高（52%和 2.0 次滑坡/公里）。相比之下，森林和灌木覆盖地区的滑坡密度要低得多（分别为 15%和 0.4 次滑坡/公里，以及 23%和 1.7 次滑坡/公里）。通过比较航拍照片确定了 1946 年至 2013 年期间 LULC 的历史变化。结果表明，森林和灌木面积分别增加了 68%和 65%；而草地和碎石区减少了 33%和 52%。城市面积也增加了 532%，尤其是在 1990 年至 2001 年期间。使用 TerrSet 软件预测了 2097 年之前的未来 LULC。结果表明，森林面积和城市面积分别增加了 57%和 43%；而灌木、草地和碎石区分别减少了 28%、46%和 78%。启发式和确定性模型被应用于创建易感性图，将研究区域分为非常低到高四个易感性等级。通过 2013 年滑坡数据集验证了这些地图，并通过接收者操作特征曲线和密度图方法显示了令人满意的结果。然后，通过启发式模型计算了 2097 年的易感性图，结果表明高易感性地区的滑坡敏感性将降低 48%。相比之下，非常低易感性程度的区域将增加 95%，而中低易感性区域将或多或少保持不变。本研究仅包括未来 LULC 变化对滑坡敏感性的影响，而不分析气候变化和降雨条件变化的未来影响。尽管如此，这些结果可以作为减少边坡不稳定风险的土地管理指南的支持。
