Zhang Zhongheng, Kattan Michael W
Department of emergency medicine, Sir Run-Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310016, China.
Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
Ann Transl Med. 2017 May;5(10):211. doi: 10.21037/atm.2017.04.01.
Outcome prediction is a major task in clinical medicine. The standard approach to this work is to collect a variety of predictors and build a model of appropriate type. The model is a mathematical equation that connects the outcome of interest with the predictors. A new patient with given clinical characteristics can be predicted for outcome with this model. However, the equation describing the relationship between predictors and outcome is often complex and the computation requires software for practical use. There is another method called nomogram which is a graphical calculating device allowing an approximate graphical computation of a mathematical function. In this article, we describe how to draw nomograms for various outcomes with nomogram() function. Binary outcome is fit by logistic regression model and the outcome of interest is the probability of the event of interest. Ordinal outcome variable is also discussed. Survival analysis can be fit with parametric model to fully describe the distributions of survival time. Statistics such as the median survival time, survival probability up to a specific time point are taken as the outcome of interest.
结果预测是临床医学中的一项主要任务。开展这项工作的标准方法是收集各种预测因素并构建合适类型的模型。该模型是一个将感兴趣的结果与预测因素联系起来的数学方程。利用这个模型可以预测具有给定临床特征的新患者的结果。然而,描述预测因素与结果之间关系的方程通常很复杂,实际应用中需要软件进行计算。还有一种称为列线图的方法,它是一种图形计算工具,允许对数学函数进行近似的图形计算。在本文中,我们描述了如何使用nomogram()函数为各种结果绘制列线图。二元结果通过逻辑回归模型拟合,感兴趣的结果是感兴趣事件的概率。还讨论了有序结果变量。生存分析可以用参数模型拟合,以充分描述生存时间的分布。诸如中位生存时间、特定时间点的生存概率等统计量被视为感兴趣的结果。