从统计学角度理解未治疗精神病的持续时间与预后之间的关系。
Understanding the relationship between duration of untreated psychosis and outcomes: A statistical perspective.
作者信息
Hannigan Ailish, Bargary Norma, Kinsella Anthony, Clarke Mary
机构信息
Graduate Entry Medical School, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland.
出版信息
Early Interv Psychiatry. 2018 Aug;12(4):730-733. doi: 10.1111/eip.12448. Epub 2017 Jun 14.
AIM
Although the relationships between duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) and outcomes are often assumed to be linear, few studies have explored the functional form of these relationships. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the potential of recent advances in curve fitting approaches (splines) to explore the form of the relationship between DUP and global assessment of functioning (GAF).
METHODS
Curve fitting approaches were used in models to predict change in GAF at long-term follow-up using DUP for a sample of 83 individuals with schizophrenia.
RESULTS
The form of the relationship between DUP and GAF was non-linear. Accounting for non-linearity increased the percentage of variance in GAF explained by the model, resulting in better prediction and understanding of the relationship.
CONCLUSION
The relationship between DUP and outcomes may be complex and model fit may be improved by accounting for the form of the relationship. This should be routinely assessed and new statistical approaches for non-linear relationships exploited, if appropriate.
目的
尽管未治疗精神病持续时间（DUP）与预后之间的关系通常被认为是线性的，但很少有研究探讨这些关系的函数形式。本研究的目的是证明曲线拟合方法（样条）的最新进展在探索DUP与功能总体评估（GAF）之间关系形式方面的潜力。
方法
在模型中使用曲线拟合方法，以DUP为变量，对83名精神分裂症患者样本进行长期随访，预测GAF的变化。
结果
DUP与GAF之间的关系形式是非线性的。考虑到这种非线性增加了模型解释的GAF方差百分比，从而能更好地预测和理解这种关系。
结论
DUP与预后之间的关系可能很复杂，考虑关系形式可能会改善模型拟合。应常规评估这一点，并在适当时采用新的非线性关系统计方法。
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