Cerutti Bernard, Kayser Bengt
a Faculty of Medicine , University of Geneva , Geneva , Switzerland.
b Institute of Sports Sciences , University of Lausanne , Lausanne , Switzerland.
J Sports Sci. 2018 Apr;36(7):797-801. doi: 10.1080/02640414.2017.1340661. Epub 2017 Jun 15.
Contrary to elite performance that is approaching an asymptote, recent analyses suggested a trend for improvement in veterans. This might be attributable to a disproportionate increase in older age-group participation. We extracted 26 years (1987-2012) of men's results of a running event in Switzerland, "La Course de l'Escalade" (7.25 km). We investigated trends in performance by five-year age-groups, taking the 10, 20, 30, and 50 fastest in each group, and then the 1, 5, and 10 percentiles. Taking the 10, 20, 30 or 50 fastest runners there was a trend for improvement ranging from 0.07 to 0.22 min·year (p < .0001; 95% CI -0.083 to -0.049 and p < .0001; 95% CI -0.250 to -0.196 respectively) in the elder age-groups. Taking the 1, 5, and 10 percentiles there were no trends for improvement, and actual deteriorations up to 0.13 (p < .0001; 95% CI +0.119 to +0.138) min·year. Mixed-effect models with repeated measures for runners, confirmed a global deteriorating trend with an estimate of +0.11 min·year (p < .0001; 95% CI +0.107 to +0.116). The results suggest that increases in performance in older runners arise from modifications of sampling from a growing population.
与接近极限的精英表现相反，最近的分析表明退伍军人有进步的趋势。这可能归因于老年组参与人数的不成比例增加。我们提取了瑞士一项跑步赛事“La Course de l'Escalade”（7.25公里）26年（1987 - 2012年）的男子成绩。我们按五年年龄组调查成绩趋势，选取每组中最快的10名、20名、30名和50名，然后是第1百分位、第5百分位和第10百分位。选取最快的10名、20名、30名或50名跑步者时，老年组有进步趋势，每年提高0.07至0.22分钟（p <.0001；95%置信区间为 -0.083至 -0.049以及p <.0001；95%置信区间为 -0.250至 -0.196）。选取第1百分位、第5百分位和第10百分位时，没有进步趋势，实际上每年恶化达0.13分钟（p <.0001；95%置信区间为 +0.119至 +0.138）。对跑步者采用重复测量的混合效应模型证实了总体恶化趋势，估计每年恶化 +0.11分钟（p <.0001；95%置信区间为 +0.107至 +0.116）。结果表明老年跑步者成绩的提高源于从不断增长的人群中抽样方式的改变。
