Li Lingling, Tian Tianhai, Zhang Xinan
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, 430079, PR China.
School of Mathematical Science, Monash University, Melbourne Vic 3800, Australia.
J Theor Biol. 2017 Sep 7;428:147-152. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.06.020. Epub 2017 Jun 20.
Environment factors such as radiation play an important role in the incidence of lung cancer. In spite of substantial efforts in experimental study and mathematical modeling, it is still a significant challenge to estimate lung cancer risk from radiation. To address this issue, we propose a stochastic model to investigate the impact of radiation on the development of lung cancer. The proposed three-stage model with clonal expansion is used to match the data of the male and female patients in the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) and Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Our results indicate that the major effect of radiation on the development of lung cancer is to induce gene mutations for both male and female patients. In particular, for male patients, radiation affects the mutation in normal cells and the transformation from premalignant cells to malignant ones. However, radiation for female patients increases the mutation rates of the first two mutations in the stochastic model. The established relationship between parameters and radiation will provide insightful prediction for the lung cancer incidence in the radiation exposure.
辐射等环境因素在肺癌的发病中起着重要作用。尽管在实验研究和数学建模方面付出了巨大努力，但从辐射估计肺癌风险仍然是一项重大挑战。为了解决这个问题，我们提出了一个随机模型来研究辐射对肺癌发展的影响。所提出的具有克隆扩增的三阶段模型用于匹配大阪癌症登记处（OCR）以及广岛和长崎原子弹幸存者的寿命研究（LSS）队列中的男性和女性患者数据。我们的结果表明，辐射对肺癌发展的主要影响是诱导男性和女性患者的基因突变。特别是，对于男性患者，辐射影响正常细胞中的突变以及癌前细胞向恶性细胞的转变。然而，女性患者的辐射会增加随机模型中前两个突变的突变率。所建立的参数与辐射之间的关系将为辐射暴露中的肺癌发病率提供有见地的预测。
