Establishment of a risk scoring system for predicting locoregional recurrence in T1 to T2 node-negative breast cancer patients treated with mastectomy: Implications for postoperative radiotherapy.

To establish a risk scoring system for predicting locoregional recurrence (LRR) and explore the potential value of radiotherapy in T1 to T2 node-negative breast cancer patients treated with mastectomy. From January 2001 to February 2008, a total of 353 node-negative T1 to T2 breast cancer cases treated with mastectomy without adjuvant radiotherapy were retrospectively analyzed. Preliminary screening of the prognostic factors was accomplished by Kaplan-Meier univariate analysis, and survival curves between different groups were compared by log-rank test. Risk factors were determined using Cox proportional hazards model. A categorical risk scoring system was generated according to the Cox model, weighing the relative importance of each risk variable. Median follow-up was 115.7 months (range, 1.2-238.4 months). The overall 5-year locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS) was 89.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 86.7%-92.9%). Chest wall (53.8%) was found to be the most common site of LRR, followed by supraclavicular nodes (48.7%). Age ≤40 years, primary tumor size ≥4.5 cm and number of nodes resected ≤10 were found to be independent factors for poor prognosis of LRR. Two risk stratifications based on the scoring system were subsequently obtained. The 5-year LRFS was 91.6% (95% CI = 88.5%-94.7%) with low risk (score <2) and 75.7% (95% CI = 61.8%-89.6%) with high risk (score ≥2), respectively (χ = 7.544, P = .006). In addition, significant differences in overall survival (P = .045) and disease-free survival (P = .019) were presented between them. Patients with T1-2N0M0 breast cancer achieved favorable prognosis in general. Those with risk factors, including age ≤40 years, primary tumor size ≥4.5 cm and number of nodes resected ≤10, were at higher risk of LRR. The established scoring system could help to distinguish the subgroups that might potentially benefit from postoperative radiotherapy.