Alhdiri Maryam Ahmed Salem, Samat Nor Azah, Mohamed Zulkifley
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Tripoli, Alfernag, Tripoli, Libya. Email:
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2017 Jun 25;18(6):1479-1484. doi: 10.22034/APJCP.2017.18.6.1479.
Globally, Cancer is the ever-increasing health problem and most common cause of medical deaths. In Libya, it is an important health concern, especially in the setting of an aging population and limited healthcare facilities. Therefore, the goal of this research is to map of the county’ cancer incidence rate using the Bayesian method and identify the high-risk regions (for the first time in a decade). In the field of disease mapping, very little has been done to address the issue of analyzing sparse cancer diseases in Libya. Standardized Morbidity Ratio or SMR is known as a traditional approach to measure the relative risk of the disease, which is the ratio of observed and expected number of accounts in a region that has the greatest uncertainty if the disease is rare or small geographical region. Therefore, to solve some of SMR’s problems, we used statistical smoothing or Bayesian models to estimate the relative risk for stomach cancer incidence in Libya in 2007 based on the BYM model. This research begins with a short offer of the SMR and Bayesian model with BYM model, which we applied to stomach cancer incidence in Libya. We compared all of the results using maps and tables. We found that BYM model is potentially beneficial, because it gives better relative risk estimates compared to SMR method. As well as, it has can overcome the classical method problem when there is no observed stomach cancer in a region.
在全球范围内，癌症是日益严重的健康问题，也是医学死亡的最常见原因。在利比亚，这是一个重要的健康问题，尤其是在人口老龄化和医疗设施有限的情况下。因此，本研究的目标是使用贝叶斯方法绘制该国的癌症发病率地图，并识别高风险地区（十年来首次）。在疾病地图绘制领域，针对利比亚稀疏癌症疾病分析问题所做的工作很少。标准化发病率比（SMR）是一种衡量疾病相对风险的传统方法，它是在疾病罕见或地理区域较小时不确定性最大的地区观察到的病例数与预期病例数之比。因此，为了解决SMR的一些问题，我们基于贝叶斯层次模型（BYM）使用统计平滑或贝叶斯模型来估计2007年利比亚胃癌发病率的相对风险。本研究首先简要介绍了SMR和带有BYM模型的贝叶斯模型，并将其应用于利比亚的胃癌发病率。我们使用地图和表格比较了所有结果。我们发现BYM模型可能是有益的，因为与SMR方法相比，它能给出更好的相对风险估计。此外，当一个地区没有观察到胃癌病例时，它可以克服传统方法的问题。
