Ahmadipanah Vahid, Mahaki Behzad, Nasirian Maryam, Zamani Maryam, Hassanzadeh Akbar
Department of Public Health, Asadabad School of Medical Sciences, Asadabad, Iran.
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
Adv Biomed Res. 2022 Mar 1;11:21. doi: 10.4103/abr.abr_253_20. eCollection 2022.
Spatial disease mapping is a widespread tool in ecological analysis to obtain accurate estimates for incidence, relative risks (RRs), prevalence, or mortality rates regarding to increase the incidence of gastrointestinal (GI) cancer in Isfahan in recent years. This study aimed to inspect the RR of GI cancer in Isfahan counties using empirical and full Bayesian model.
Data of this ecological study were GI cancer cases which registered in health-care system of Isfahan University of Sciences during 2005-2010. We applied shared component model to model the spatial variation incidence rates of the GI cancers. We compared three models such as Gamma-Poisson, lognormal, and Besag, York, and Mollie (BYM) Bayesian. WinBUGS and GIS 10.1 software were used.
According to the fitted model, BYM model had best fit to the data. However, in general, ranks of RRs in most counties are identical; counties with higher RR in one map have higher RR in other maps. Geographical maps for three cancers in women were smoother than men. Isfahan has high RR in women, whereas this point is slightly different in men. Daran, FreidoonShahr, and Isfahan are cities which have high RR in esophagus, stomach, and colon cancer, respectively.
Lognormal and BYM maps had very similar results. Despite some differences in estimation values, in nearly all maps arias Isfahan had high RR in GI cancer. It is recommended to promote the use of screening programs and increase awareness of people in high RR areas to reduce the incidence of GI cancer.
空间疾病图谱是生态分析中一种广泛应用的工具，用于获取关于发病率、相对风险（RRs）、患病率或死亡率的准确估计值，以应对近年来伊斯法罕胃肠道（GI）癌发病率的上升。本研究旨在使用经验模型和全贝叶斯模型检查伊斯法罕各县胃肠道癌的RR。
本生态研究的数据为2005 - 2010年期间在伊斯法罕医科大学医疗系统登记的胃肠道癌病例。我们应用共享成分模型对胃肠道癌的空间变异发病率进行建模。我们比较了三种模型，即伽马 - 泊松模型、对数正态模型和贝萨格、约克和莫利（BYM）贝叶斯模型。使用了WinBUGS和GIS 10.1软件。
根据拟合模型，BYM模型对数据的拟合效果最佳。然而，总体而言，大多数县的RR排名是相同的；在一张地图上RR较高的县在其他地图上RR也较高。女性三种癌症的地理分布图比男性的更平滑。伊斯法罕女性的RR较高，而男性的情况略有不同。达拉恩、弗雷敦沙赫尔和伊斯法罕分别是食管癌、胃癌和结肠癌RR较高的城市。
对数正态模型和BYM模型的结果非常相似。尽管估计值存在一些差异，但在几乎所有地图中，伊斯法罕地区胃肠道癌的RR都较高。建议推广筛查项目的使用，并提高RR高的地区人群的意识，以降低胃肠道癌的发病率。
