Nazari Kangavari Hajar, Shojaei Ahmad, Hashemi Nazari Seyed Saeed
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Legal Medicine Research Center, Iranian Legal Medicine Organization, Tehran, Iran.
J Res Health Sci. 2017 Jun 14;17(2):e00382.
Suicide is a major cause of unnatural deaths in the world. Its incidence is higher in western provinces of Iran. So far, there has not been any time series analysis of suicide in western provinces. The purpose of this study was to analyze suicide mortality data from 2006 to 2016 as well as to forecast the number of suicides for 2017 in four provinces of Iran (Ilam, Kermanshah and Lorestan and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad).
Descriptive-analytic study.
Data were analyzed by time- series analysis using R software. Three automatic methods (Auto.arima, ETS (Error Transitional Seasonality) and time series linear model (TSLM)) were fitted on the data. The best model after cross validation according to the mean absolute error measure was selected for forecasting.
Totally, 7004 suicidal deaths occurred of which, 4259 were male and 2745 were female. The mean age of the study population was (32.05 ± 15.48 yr). Hanging and self-immolation were the most frequent types of suicide in men and women, respectively. The maximum and minimum number of suicides was occurred in July and August as well as January respectively.
It is suggested that intervention measures should be designed in order to decrease the suicide rate particularly in the age group of 15-29 yr, and implemented as a pilot study, especially in these four provinces of Iran, which have a relatively high suicide rate.
自杀是全球非自然死亡的主要原因。其在伊朗西部省份的发生率较高。迄今为止，尚未对伊朗西部省份的自杀情况进行过任何时间序列分析。本研究的目的是分析2006年至2016年的自杀死亡率数据，并预测伊朗四个省份（伊拉姆、克尔曼沙阿、洛雷斯坦以及科吉卢耶-博韦艾哈迈德）2017年的自杀人数。
描述性分析研究。
使用R软件通过时间序列分析对数据进行分析。三种自动方法（自动自回归积分滑动平均模型、误差传递季节性模型（ETS）以及时间序列线性模型（TSLM））应用于这些数据。根据平均绝对误差度量，在交叉验证后选择最佳模型进行预测。
总共发生了7004例自杀死亡，其中男性4259例，女性2745例。研究人群的平均年龄为（32.05±15.48岁）。男性和女性最常见的自杀方式分别是上吊和自焚。自杀人数最多和最少的月份分别是7月和8月以及1月。
建议制定干预措施以降低自杀率，特别是在15 - 29岁年龄组，并作为一项试点研究实施，尤其是在伊朗自杀率相对较高的这四个省份。
