Stockwell Tim, Zhao Jinhui, Sherk Adam, Callaghan Russell C, Macdonald Scott, Gatley Jodi
Centre for Addictions Research of British Columbia, Technology Enterprise Facility, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada.
Northern Medical Program, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2017 Jul;36(4):492-501. doi: 10.1111/dar.12471. Epub 2016 Nov 7.
Saskatchewan's introduction in April 2010 of minimum prices graded by alcohol strength led to an average minimum price increase of 9.1% per Canadian standard drink (=13.45 g ethanol). This increase was shown to be associated with reduced consumption and switching to lower alcohol content beverages. Police also informally reported marked reductions in night-time alcohol-related crime.
This study aims to assess the impacts of changes to Saskatchewan's minimum alcohol-pricing regulations between 2008 and 2012 on selected crime events often related to alcohol use.
Data were obtained from Canada's Uniform Crime Reporting Survey. Auto-regressive integrated moving average time series models were used to test immediate and lagged associations between minimum price increases and rates of night-time and police identified alcohol-related crimes. Controls were included for simultaneous crime rates in the neighbouring province of Alberta, economic variables, linear trend, seasonality and autoregressive and/or moving-average effects.
The introduction of increased minimum-alcohol prices was associated with an abrupt decrease in night-time alcohol-related traffic offences for men (-8.0%, P < 0.001), but not women. No significant immediate changes were observed for non-alcohol-related driving offences, disorderly conduct or violence. Significant monthly lagged effects were observed for violent offences (-19.7% at month 4 to -18.2% at month 6), which broadly corresponded to lagged effects in on-premise alcohol sales.
Increased minimum alcohol prices may contribute to reductions in alcohol-related traffic-related and violent crimes perpetrated by men. Observed lagged effects for violent incidents may be due to a delay in bars passing on increased prices to their customers, perhaps because of inventory stockpiling. [Stockwell T, Zhao J, Sherk A, Callaghan RC, Macdonald S, Gatley J. Assessing the impacts of Saskatchewan's minimum alcohol pricing regulations on alcohol-related crime. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:492-501].
2010年4月，萨斯喀彻温省引入了按酒精强度分级的最低价格，导致每加拿大标准饮品（=13.45克乙醇）的平均最低价格上涨了9.1%。研究表明，这一价格上涨与消费量减少以及转向饮用酒精含量较低的饮料有关。警方还非正式报告称，与酒精相关的夜间犯罪显著减少。
本研究旨在评估2008年至2012年萨斯喀彻温省最低酒精定价法规变化对一些常与饮酒相关的犯罪事件的影响。
数据来自加拿大统一犯罪报告调查。使用自回归积分移动平均时间序列模型来测试最低价格上涨与夜间及警方认定的与酒精相关犯罪率之间的即时和滞后关联。对邻省艾伯塔省的同时期犯罪率、经济变量、线性趋势、季节性以及自回归和/或移动平均效应进行了控制。
最低酒精价格上涨与男性夜间与酒精相关的交通违法行为急剧减少有关（-8.0%，P<0.001），但与女性无关。对于与酒精无关的驾驶违法行为、行为不检或暴力行为，未观察到显著的即时变化。暴力犯罪出现了显著的月度滞后效应（第4个月为-19.7%，第6个月为-18.2%），这与店内酒精销售的滞后效应大致相符。
最低酒精价格上涨可能有助于减少男性实施的与酒精相关的交通和暴力犯罪。暴力事件中观察到的滞后效应可能是由于酒吧将价格上涨转嫁给顾客存在延迟，这可能是由于库存积压所致。[斯托克韦尔T，赵J，舍尔科A，卡拉汉RC，麦克唐纳S，加特利J。评估萨斯喀彻温省最低酒精定价法规对与酒精相关犯罪的影响。《药物与酒精评论》2017；36：492 - 501]
