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整合东亚台风和非台风极端降雨事件的非平稳行为。

Integrating nonstationary behaviors of typhoon and non-typhoon extreme rainfall events in East Asia.

机构信息

Department of Civil Engineering, ERI, Gyeongsang National University, 501 Jinju-daero, Jinju, Gyeongsangnam-do, South Korea.

Water Resources Research Center, K-Water Institute 125, Yuseong-daero, Daejeon, South Korea.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2017 Jul 11;7(1):5097. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-04629-1.

Abstract

Extreme rainfall events in East Asia can be derived from the two subcomponents of tropical cyclones (TC) and non-TC based rainfall (mostly summer monsoons). Critical natural hazards including floods and landslides occur repeatedly due to the heavy rainfall associated with the two subcomponents, and disaster losses are increasing because global warming has caused changes in the extreme rainfall characteristics of two subcomponents. Subsequently, the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall have reportedly become nonstationary. The majority of literature on nonstationary frequency analyses do not account for the different behaviors (stationarity or nonstationarity) of annual maximum rainfall (AMR) from the two subcomponents (PM and PM ). To carry out a nonstationary frequency analysis considering the different behaviors of the PM and PM series, this study proposes a novel approach of integrating the fitted PM and PM series after modeling the nonstationarity of the PM and PM series individually. The presented results conclude that the proposed approach provides more reliable estimates than existing nonstationary approaches by reflecting the different features of the PM and PM series. We suggest that the proposed approach provides a reasonable design rainfall in constructing hydraulics to mitigate the different nonstationary effects of two TC and non-TC rainfall extremes.

摘要

东亚的极端降雨事件可由热带气旋(TC)和非 TC 降雨(主要是夏季季风)的两个子分量得出。由于与这两个子分量相关的强降雨,洪水和山体滑坡等重大自然灾害反复发生,并且由于全球变暖导致两个子分量的极端降雨特征发生变化,灾害损失正在增加。随后,极端降雨的频率和强度据报道已变得非平稳。大多数关于非平稳频率分析的文献都没有考虑两个子分量(PM 和 PM )的年最大降雨量(AMR)的不同行为(平稳或非平稳)。为了进行考虑 PM 和 PM 系列不同行为的非平稳频率分析,本研究提出了一种新方法,即将 PM 和 PM 系列的非平稳性分别建模后,集成拟合的 PM 和 PM 系列。结果表明,该方法通过反映 PM 和 PM 系列的不同特征,提供了比现有非平稳方法更可靠的估计。我们建议,该方法为构建水力学提供了合理的设计降雨,以减轻两个 TC 和非 TC 降雨极端事件的不同非平稳影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0782/5506020/a316c963bdee/41598_2017_4629_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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