Surf & Surge Research Group. Dpto Ciencias y Tecnicas del Agua y del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain.
Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
Sci Rep. 2017 Jul 11;7(1):5038. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-05090-w.
Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.
世界上的沿海社区面临着许多日益增加的威胁，如沿海洪水和侵蚀、海水入侵和湿地退化。在这里，我们首次对大规模海洋因素导致沿海洪水的主要驱动因素进行了全球范围的分析。鉴于该问题的巨大维度（例如洪水规模的时空可变性以及波浪、潮汐和涌浪水平的相对影响），我们已经进行了基于计算机的分类，以确定具有相似气候的地理区域。结果表明，全球 75%的沿海地区有可能发生洪水规模极大但概率极低的特大洪水事件（无界尾部），82%的地区受潮汐控制，近 49%的地区由于海平面上升，洪水频率增加的敏感性很高。
