Jullien Swen, Aucan Jérôme, Kestenare Elodie, Lengaigne Matthieu, Menkes Christophe
Univ Brest, Ifremer, CNRS, IRD, LOPS, F-29280, Plouzané, France.
ENTROPIE (IRD, CNRS, Ifremer, Université de la Réunion, Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie), Nouméa, New Caledonia.
Nat Commun. 2024 Aug 3;15(1):6593. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-50929-2.
Tropical and extra-tropical storms generate extreme waves, impacting both nearby and remote regions through swell propagation. Despite their devastating effects in tropical areas, the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) to global wave-induced coastal risk remains unknown. Here, we enable a quantitative assessment of TC's role in extreme waves approaching global coastlines, by designing twin oceanic wave simulations with and without realistic TC wind forcing. We find that TCs substantially contribute to extreme breaking heights in tropical regions (35-50% on average), reaching 100% in high-density TC areas like the North Pacific. TCs also impact remote TC-free regions, such as the equatorial Pacific experiencing in average 30% of its extreme wave events due to TCs. Interannual variability amplifies TC-induced wave hazards, notably during El Niño in the Central Pacific, and La Niña in the South China Sea, Caribbean Arc, and South Indian Ocean coastlines. This research offers critical insights for global risk management and preparedness.
热带风暴和温带风暴会产生极端海浪，通过涌浪传播影响附近和偏远地区。尽管热带气旋在热带地区具有破坏性影响，但其对全球海浪引发的沿海风险的贡献仍不明确。在此，我们通过设计有和没有实际热带气旋风力强迫的双海洋波浪模拟，对热带气旋在接近全球海岸线的极端海浪中的作用进行了定量评估。我们发现，热带气旋对热带地区的极端破碎波高有显著贡献（平均35%-50%），在北太平洋等高热带气旋密度地区达到100%。热带气旋还会影响偏远的无热带气旋地区，例如赤道太平洋平均30%的极端海浪事件是由热带气旋引起的。年际变化会加剧热带气旋引发的海浪灾害，特别是在中太平洋的厄尔尼诺期间，以及南海、加勒比弧和南印度洋海岸线的拉尼娜期间。这项研究为全球风险管理和准备工作提供了重要见解。
