Loss of chance associated with sub-optimal HPV vaccination coverage rate in France.

INTRODUCTION

Since 2007, HPV vaccination programs have been implemented in Europe. Significant real-life impact has already been reported in countries where the programs have been successfully implemented. In France, HPV vaccination coverage rate (VCR) is currently one of the lowest in Europe. This represents a missed opportunity for individuals who will not be protected. The study aimed to estimate the consequences of the sub-optimal VCR.

METHODS

A dynamic transmission model was calibrated to the French setting. Outcomes resulting from the vaccination of girls with quadrivalent HPV vaccine according to two theoretical VCR: 17% and 70%, reflecting the range of VCRs in Western Europe, were evaluated.

RESULTS

Over 100 years, with the current low VCR, an additional 85,000 cancers, 28,000 deaths and more than 5 million avertable disease events overall would occur compared with a 70% VCR. At steady state, the 17% VCR was estimated to be associated with an additional 1700 cancers, 600 deaths and 66,000 avertable disease events each year, compared with a 'standard' EU VCR.

CONCLUSION

The loss of chance associated with sub-optimal VCR is substantial for the French population and could amount to the occurrence of hundreds of avoidable deaths and thousands of disease events annually.