Quader Mohammad Abdul, Khan Amanat Ullah, Kervyn Matthieu
Department of Geography, Earth System Science, Vrije Universisteit Brussel, 1050-Brussels, Belgium.
Department of Geography and Environment, Jagannath University, Dhaka-1100, Bangladesh.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Jul 25;14(8):831. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14080831.
As a disaster prone country, Bangladesh is regularly hit by natural hazards, including devastating cyclones, such as in 1970, 1991 and 2007. Although the number of cyclones' fatalities reduced from 0.3 million in 1970 to a few thousand or fewer in recent events, loss of lives and impact on livelihoods remains a concern. It depends on the meteorological characteristics of cyclone and the general vulnerability and capacity of the exposed population. In that perspective, a spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential step towards targeted disaster risk reduction. This study aims at analyzing the spatial variation of the different factors contributing to the risk for coastal communities at regional scale, including the distribution of the hazards, exposure, vulnerability and capacity. An exploratory factor analysis method is used to map vulnerability contrasts between local administrative units. Indexing and ranking using geospatial techniques are used to produce maps of exposure, hazard, vulnerability, capacities and risk. Results show that vulnerable populations and exposed areas are distributed along the land sea boundary, islands and major inland rivers. The hazard, assessed from the density of historical cyclone paths, is highest in the southwestern part of the coast. Whereas cyclones shelters are shown to properly serve the most vulnerable populations as priority evacuation centers, the overall pattern of capacity accounting for building quality and road network shows a more complex pattern. Resultant risk maps also provide a reasonable basis from which to take further structural measures to minimize loss of lives in the upcoming cyclones.
作为一个易受灾国家，孟加拉国经常遭受自然灾害，包括毁灭性的气旋，如1970年、1991年和2007年的气旋。尽管气旋造成的死亡人数从1970年的30万减少到最近几次事件中的几千人或更少，但生命损失和对生计的影响仍然令人担忧。这取决于气旋的气象特征以及受灾人口的总体脆弱性和能力。从这个角度来看，进行空间明确的风险评估是有针对性地减少灾害风险的关键一步。本研究旨在分析区域尺度上导致沿海社区风险的不同因素的空间变化，包括灾害的分布、暴露程度、脆弱性和能力。采用探索性因素分析方法绘制地方行政单位之间的脆弱性对比图。利用地理空间技术进行索引和排名，以生成暴露程度、灾害、脆弱性、能力和风险图。结果表明，脆弱人群和暴露区域分布在陆地海洋边界、岛屿和主要内陆河流沿线。根据历史气旋路径密度评估的灾害在海岸西南部最高。虽然气旋避难所被证明作为优先疏散中心能妥善服务最脆弱人群，但考虑到建筑质量和道路网络的能力总体格局呈现出更复杂的模式。生成的风险图也为采取进一步结构性措施以尽量减少未来气旋造成的生命损失提供了合理依据。
