Xu Wei, Zhuo Li, Zheng Jing, Ge Yi, Gu Zhihui, Tian Yugang
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2016 Feb 17;13(2):222. doi: 10.3390/ijerph13020222.
A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.
对极端气候事件或自然灾害的频率、强度和风险进行研究，对于评估气候变化的影响至关重要。已经开发了许多模型来评估多种灾害的风险，然而，大多数现有方法只能对风险的相对水平进行建模。本文报告了一种基于信息扩散的多种灾害风险定量评估方法的开发。该方法用于评估中国省级和地级11种气象灾害造成的人员伤亡风险。获得了每个省份的多种灾害风险曲线，并绘制了10年、20年、50年和100年重现期的风险图。结果表明，中国东南部的省份（直辖市、自治区）由于其地理位置和地形，面临多种气象灾害的风险较高。本研究结果可为中国气象灾害管理提供参考。该模型可用于定量计算不同空间尺度下任何灾害造成的人员伤亡、直接经济损失、建筑物倒塌和农业损失的风险。
